Analysts’ projections for 2024 inflation fell, while estimates for the evolution of GDP and the basic interest rate rose this week, according to data released this Monday (6) by the Central Bank’s Focus Report.
The survey, which had been postponed to Tuesdays due to strikes by BC employees, returned today to its normal release, on Mondays.
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Inflation
The IPCA estimate for this year fell from 3.73% to 3.72%, while the forecast for 2025 inflation increased from 3.60% to 3.64%. The projection for 2026 remains at 3.50%, a level equal to that of the last 44 Focus bulletins, the same rate of variation expected for inflation in 2027.
GDP
For gross domestic product (GDP), the median projections for 2024 rose from 2.02% to 2.05%. The projection for 2025 remained at 2.0% for the 21st week in a row and that for 2026 has been at 2.0% for 39 weeks in a row. The estimate is also at 2.0% for 2027, 41 weeks ago.
Selic
The projection for the basic interest rate (Selic) experienced a new increase this week, rising from 9.50% to 9.63%, while the forecast for 2025 remained at 9.0%. The projection for 2026 rose again, from 8.63%, a week ago, to 8.75%. The expected rate for 2027 has been at 8.50% for 39 weeks.
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The median of projections for the dollar has remained the same throughout the research horizon for two weeks: it remained at the same R$5.00 in 2024, at R$5.05 for 2025, at R$5.10 in 2026, and also at R$5.10 for 2027.
Primary outcome
The projection for the primary result in 2024 improved this week, going from a deficit of -0.70% of GDP to -0.67% of GDP, while the estimate for 2025 remained at the same -0.68% of GDP. For 2026, the estimate remained at -0.50% of GDP. For 2027, the forecast improved slightly, going from a deficit of -0.25% of GDP to -0.23% of GDP.
Public debt
For public sector net debt, the projection for 2024 remained stable at 63.85% of GDP, but increased over the remainder of the researched horizon: it went from 66.40% of GDP in 2025 to 66.50%, in 2026 it increased from 68.00% to 68.40%, and for 2027 it rose from 69.70% of GDP to 69.90% of GDP.
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Trade balance
The projection for the Brazilian trade balance in 2024 fell from US$80.50 billion to US$79.75 billion. The positive balance for 2025 rose from US$75 billion to US$76 billion in the week. For 2026, the projection remained at US$77.50 billion and, for 2027, it remained at the same US$75 billion.
