Family consumption should remain robust, supported by the evolution of the wage bill and stronger job creation. On the supply side, agricultural production is expected to fall short of last year’s record harvest, in a context of less favorable weather conditions.
OECD
China’s weak growth is seen as a warning sign. According to the publication, geopolitical tensions and the slowdown in Brazil’s main trading partner could affect external demand for national goods and impact economic growth.
The entity also predicts better growth in the global economy. The updated forecast also shows that global growth will be 3.1% this year and should accelerate to 3.2% in 2025. The previous report projected increases of 2.9% this year and 3% in 2025.
The OECD also observes the trend of deceleration in inflation. In the report, the agency predicts that the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) should decrease to 4% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025.
Temporary price increases are not unlikely. According to the OECD, temporary increases in inflation can be excluded. The assessment is that the IPCA may be affected by adverse movements in agriculture, a determining sector for food and beverage prices.
The fall in inflation is also seen as a determining factor for new Selic cuts. With the advancement of controlled prices, the OECD predicts further reductions in the basic interest rate, 8.75% per year at the end of 2024 and 8.25% in the second half of 2025.
