Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing one of the biggest climate disasters in its history. The heavy rains, which have lasted for days, have caused deaths, left cities underwater and threatened the collapse of dams. What are the explanations for so much rain in the state?
In an interview with TV Brasil, meteorologist and general coordinator of Operations and Modeling at the National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts (Cemaden), Marcelo Seluchi, explains that the phenomenon is the result of the combination of several factors. According to him, the heat wave located in the central region of Brazil with high atmospheric pressure leads to the formation of dry and hot air, which ends up blocking the passage of cold fronts to the north of the country.
“These cold fronts come from Argentina, arrive quickly in the South Region and are unable to advance. We have a succession of fronts [frias] which have become stationary and are maintaining the rains for several days”, he explained.
Seluchi also does not rule out that the rains are a reflection of El Niño, which is in its final stage, and indirectly of climate change, as the atmosphere and oceans are warmer, producing additional steam for the formation of rain.
How long will it rain?
Seluchi predicts that the storms will continue for days, due to a phenomenon that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, called the blocking system, which influences Brazil. In this system, according to the meteorologist, an atmospheric situation becomes stagnant and persists for days.
“This situation [chuvas]unfortunately, it should remain the same, with few changes, at least until Saturday with very high volumes still, even exceeding 250 millimeters, especially in the central-northern portion of the state”, he said.
According to the forecast, on Sunday, the rains are expected to continue, but are already starting to lose strength.
According to Seluchi, the fronts should fluctuate, and could go further south of the continent, to Uruguay, or rise to Santa Catarina. From then on, the rains should be less voluminous and with a longer period without rain.
Soggy land
Seluchi warns that the process of absorbing the volume of water will also take days.
“All the water that has already fallen in the state will be drained, which will take several days to return to normal,” he added.
Due to the rains hitting Rio Grande do Sul, Lake Guaíba, which bathes the capital, Porto Alegre, could raise its level by up to five meters by this Friday (5).
Unprecedented situation
According to Seluchi, the scenario can be considered unprecedented for the state and one of the biggest disasters in the country.
Rain volumes, says the expert, have already been recorded in other parts of Brazil, but not with such territorial coverage.
“These volumes are not unprecedented, but the spatial scope of the rain is unprecedented,” he said.
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