Brazil’s sugar production is expected to reach a record 46.29 million tons in the 2024/25 harvest, with growth of 1.3% compared to the volume of the previous cycle, which had been the largest ever seen. The increase in production occurs despite the expectation of a smaller sugarcane harvest, said the National Supply Company (Conab) in its first survey for the new season.
The country’s sugarcane harvest was estimated at 685.86 million tons, a drop of 3.8% compared to last season’s historic high, due to low rainfall combined with high temperatures in the center-south region, which caused losses in productivity .
The slight increase in national sugar production, with greater use of sugarcane as a sweetener in relation to ethanol, should occur mainly with an increase in manufacturing in Minas Gerais (589 thousand tons), Mato Grosso do Sul (116.5 thousand tons), Goiás (107 thousand tons)in addition to the Northeastern States (228 thousand tons), while in the major Brazilian producer (São Paulo) the volume is expected to fall by 533.6 thousand tons compared to the previous cycle, to 27.7 million tons.
“When compared to the 2023/24 harvest, with the exception of the North, Mato Grosso and São Paulo regions, despite the greater use of sugar cane for the production of the sweetener in relation to ethanol, there is an increase in sugar production ”, said Conab.
In the center-south of Brazil, a region that accounts for most of the sugarcane production, the harvest was estimated at 625.4 million tonsan annual reduction of 4.2%, with productivity falling 8.3%, to 80.8 tons per hectare.
The expected drop in the Brazilian sugarcane harvest should not be greater because the planted area across the country will grow 4.1%, to 8.67 million hectaresthe largest since the 2017/18 season (8.7 million hectares), estimated Conab.
Producers were encouraged to expand planting and renew sugarcane fields, Conab said, as Brazil’s sugar exports have been boosted by sustained international pricesfollowing climate problems in countries like India.
“The favorable market justifies this value, placing the current harvest as the largest sugar production in Conab’s historical series,” said the state-owned company in a report. The state-owned company cited that India, the second largest sugar producer, has been facing adverse weather conditions, resulting in a drop in production.
“Even though it has historically been an exporter, the Indian country is now facing the prospect of sugar imports due to the decrease in production…, a scenario that benefits the Brazilian product.”
According to Conab, the national average productivity is estimated at around 79 tons per hectare, 7.6% below that obtained in the previous harvest, which was favored by good weather conditions.
Total ethanol production, including the volumes produced from sugar cane and corn, is expected to fall 4% compared to the previous harvest, to 34.18 billion liters.. In the case of ethanol from the crushing of sugar cane, there was a reduction of 8%, to 27.3 billion liters, with plants allocating more raw material to the production of the sweetener.
Corn derivatives show growth of 16%, to 6.86 billion liters, with the country’s production almost entirely in the center-south. In the center-south, total ethanol production (from sugarcane and corn) was estimated at around 32 billion liters, also a decline of 4%. Sugarcane ethanol manufacturing in the region will fall further, or 8.4%, to 25.1 billion liters.
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