Petrobras is holding a shareholders’ meeting this Thursday (25) to elect a new board of directors and decide on the payment of extraordinary dividends, the focus of a political crisis that almost toppled the president of the state-owned company, Jean Paul Prates.
In the election for the council, the government is trying to expand its direct influence over Brazil’s largest state-owned company. The question of dividends helps to improve investors’ view of the company, which was shaken after the noise surrounding the issue.
“Petrobras faced a turbulent start to the year, but the company’s prospects are improving,” wrote Marcelo Boragini, partner and variable income specialist at Davos Investimentos, in a report.
He highlights, however, that the government’s retreat in relation to dividends places the state-owned company among the oil companies with above-average returns to investors, with expectations of paying between 12% and 13% of the value of the shares in 2025.
“It is particularly notable, outperforming the market average, which could make Petrobras an attractive investment for those with a long-term view,” Bogini said.
The dispute over dividends dates back to before the Lula government, when the Bolsonarist management of Petrobras became the target of criticism for the high remuneration to shareholders in a period of expensive fuels and low investments.
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In 2023, Prates ordered a change in the dividend policy that slightly reduced the percentage of cash generation to be distributed, but without displeasing too many private investors.
In March, government representatives on the board vetoed the company’s board of directors’ proposal to distribute 50% of extraordinary dividends of R$43 billion, claiming that the measure could impact the company’s investment capacity.
The decision brought down the state-owned company’s shares, heated up Prates’ fry and ended up being reviewed last week, as ordered by Lula. It must be taken to a vote in the assembly this Thursday and approved with a vote from the government and minorities.
The market expects that, during the year, the company will approve the distribution of the additional 50% of relevant dividends, given the relevance of the resources for the government’s fiscal balance.
“The government is one of the main beneficiaries of these dividends”, highlighted Alexandre Pletes, head of variable income at Faz Capital. “This fact is relevant considering the recent change in the fiscal target for 2025, aiming for a zero deficit and the possible usefulness of these Petrobras dividends in helping to achieve this objective.”
In the vote for the council, 10 of the 11 seats on the board that decides the state-owned company’s strategy are at stake — one of them, reserved for the workers’ representative, will be occupied again by Rosângela Buzanelli.
Another two are reserved for representatives of minority shareholders. One will be contested by three candidates: Aristóteles Nogueira, former partner at the resource management company XP Investimentos; Jerônimo Antunes, advisor to other companies; and Thales Kroth, financial analyst at Top Cold.
The other will be occupied again by lawyer Francisco Petros, the only candidate from shareholders holding common shares (with voting rights).
The remaining eight will be disputed between the government and private investors. Until 2020, the controlling shareholder occupied all of them, but private shareholders began to come together to expand their participation. Today, the government has six of these seats, and the minority seats, two.
The government presented a list with eight names, five of them already on the board: Prates, the special secretary of Government Analysis of the Civil House, Bruno Moretti, two secretaries of the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy), Victor Saback and Pietro Mendes, and the lawyer Renato Gallupo.
Pietro Mendes is the current president of the council and was removed from office due to an injunction granted by the Federal Court of São Paulo, but the decision was overturned and he is running again for president of the council.
The deputy also managed to remove former minister Sergio Machado Rezende. The decision was also reviewed, but he is not a candidate for re-election.
To its list, the government added the deputy executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Rafael Dubeux, who replaces Sergio Machado Rezende, and represents an advance in the direct influence of the controlling shareholder over the collegiate.
These six will probably be the representatives of the Union, as the last two vacancies tend to go to the current occupants, banker João José Abdalla and lawyer Marcelo Gasparino, both nominated by Abdalla’s Banco Clássico, with the support of other minority shareholders.
