Floods in the South: forecast of new rains generates warning of ‘extreme danger’

Updated 4 hours ago

The heavy rains that have been affecting Rio Grande do Sul since last week have already caused 85 deaths and affected 385 of the 497 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul.

The government of Rio Grande do Sul still estimates that 1.178 million people were affected by the extreme weather event. There are 339 injured and 134 missing.

Lake Guaíba, which broke the historic record, was five meters high on Monday afternoon — four meters above the volume considered normal.

This Monday, Climatempo issued an extreme danger warning in the south of the state, which is expected to have “frequent and voluminous” rain at the beginning of this week.

In addition to the high volume of rain, the southernmost region of the State may have winds of up to 85 km/h, with a risk of storms in Pelotas and Campanha Gaúcha.

From Wednesday (8/5), the formation of an extratropical cyclone and a cold front will help bring rain to other regions of the State.

But on Sunday (5/5), the federal government reported that the cold front could become a concern.

On Wednesday, the temperature will drop to up to 10 °C in some areas of the state, according to the Southern Military Command.

The command, which is participating in the operation to help the victims, stated that the idea is to speed up work until Tuesday (7), as the cold front will worsen evacuation conditions, in addition to increasing the risk of hypothermia in people waiting rescue in the open or in the rain.

Authorities are working to reestablish transport services and routes.

• Salgado Filho airport, in Porto Alegre, is closed indefinitely. Fraport, the company responsible for administration, advises passengers to contact their airline to reschedule or refund tickets to or from Porto Alegre.
• Abear (Brazilian Association of Airlines) informed that its associates Gol, Latam and Voepass canceled all flights to/from Porto Alegre until Friday (10). Furthermore, the association announced that these companies are making flights with donations to the State.
• The airports in the cities of Passo Fundo, Caxias do Sul, Pelotas and Santo Ângelo are operating, but may “be impacted by weather conditions”, according to Abear.
• The Gaúcha Highway Company announced that most of the road sections that were blocked due to the landslides until now have been released.
• The government of Rio Grande do Sul announced the investment of R$117.7 million for the reconstruction of roads.
• There is a lack of electricity in 10% of the supply network, according to the morning balance this Monday (6/5). There are around 884 thousand people without access to water. Telephone and internet operators are also without service in dozens of municipalities.
• The government estimates that 744 schools were affected — that is, they are damaged, are serving as shelters or have transportation or access problems. These teaching units are spread across 231 cities in the State. It is estimated that 251 thousand students were impacted by the rains and floods. Classes should resume from Tuesday (7/5) only in the least affected regions.
• There is no forecast for the return of classes in Porto Alegre and in the coordinators that cover São Leopoldo, Estrela, Guaíba, Cachoeira do Sul and Canoas.

A report released by the government of Rio Grande do Sul on Sunday afternoon (5/5) reported that there are six hydroelectric dams in an emergency situation, with an imminent risk of failure. According to the Rio Grande do Sul government, this indicates that “measures must be taken to preserve lives”.

Among these measures is the removal of families from areas that could be affected if a rupture occurs. The number of families in this situation was not reported.

This survey is carried out by the government through the Secretariat for the Environment and Infrastructure (Sema), the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) and the National System Operator (ONS).

One of the six dams in an emergency situation, located between the municipalities of Bento Gonçalves and Cotiporã, already recorded a partial failure three days ago.

According to the government, there are still five other dams in a state of alert. This means that they present “anomalies that pose a safety risk” and require maintenance to ensure that the situation does not worsen.

The group responsible for this assessment also reported that there are seven dams in a state of attention. These are structures that have anomalies, but that do not compromise short-term safety. They require monitoring, control or some repair.

In an interview with journalists on Saturday (4/5), the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), stated that the serious situation caused by the floods in the State will require the adoption of a “Marshall Plan”.

The Marshall Plan was the American strategy of investing billions of dollars in rebuilding Allied Europe after World War II.

“We will need absolutely exceptional measures. Rio Grande do Sul will need a Marshall Plan, absolutely extraordinary measures. Anyone who has already been a victim of tragedies cannot be a victim of lack of assistance and bureaucracy,” the governor told the press.

Alongside President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), on Sunday, Leite stated that this plan will also have to involve climate resilience strategies, which allow the State to resist global climate extremes.

On Sunday (5/5), Lula visited the State to discuss the next steps in responding to the tragedy.

“We need to stop chasing misfortune (…) and act in advance” to prevent tragedies, said Lula.

The president stated that the federal government will help with the recovery of state infrastructure — and that state bureaucracy will not hinder reconstruction efforts.

“Brazil owes a lot to Rio Grande do Sul”, added Lula, mentioning the state’s agricultural strength.

“If he has always helped Brazil, now it’s time for Brazil to help Rio Grande do Sul.”

The Minister of Transport, Renan Filho, stated that an additional R$1 billion will be released for the recovery of federal highways due to the rain.

The government also released more than R$580 million in parliamentary amendments for the State, most of it for the health area.

• Presence of a trough (intense wind current) operating in the region, resulting in very unstable weather;
• Presence of the humidity corridor coming from the Amazon, which increased the intensity of precipitation;
• Presence of a heat wave in the central region of the country

“This hot air mass over the central area of ​​the country blocked the cold front that is in the southern region, preventing it from advancing and spreading to other locations. The combination of these factors causes this instability to remain over the state, causing rain intense and continuous”, explains Dayse Moraes, meteorologist at Inmet.

In addition, the period between the end of April and the beginning of May 2024 is still influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, which is responsible for warming the waters of the Pacific Ocean, contributing to areas of instability over the State.

This combination of several factors at once is considered rare by experts.

The catastrophic rains in the South are directly related to the heat wave recorded in the Central-West and Southeast regions, where temperatures are around 5 °C above average this autumn.

“With the intensification of global climate change, extreme weather events will be more frequent and intercurrent”, adds Rafael de Ávila Rodrigues, professor and climatologist at the Institute of Geography at the Federal University of Catalão (UFCAT).