A study published by the Federation of Industries of Rio de Janeiro (Firjan), based on data published by the National Treasury Secretariat (STN), points out that, of the 27 units of the federation, the forecast is for a budget deficit in 22 Brazilian states and the District Federal, totaling a negative balance of R$29.3 billion in the 2024 accounts. Alagoas, according to the study, will close in the red by R$33 million.
Rio de Janeiro, with the possibility of a deficit of R$ 10.4 billion, is the one with the worst result in the analysis, followed by Minas Gerais (-R$ 4.2), Ceará (-R$ 4.0), Paraná (-R$ 3.5) and Rio Grande do Sul (-R$ 3.1).
The smallest deficit among the federative units is in Roraima, in the amount of R$2 million. Alagoas comes next. Firjan’s study indicates a unanimous perception of fiscal risk among the federation units, “a context that can be explained by a combination of factors that resulted in a fiscal trap: a lower rate of revenue growth and an increase in financial obligations”, say the organizers of the study.
The short list of four states that will have enough revenue to cover expenses includes São Paulo, Amapá, Espírito Santo and Mato Grosso. “According to the budget allocation for the year 2024, state expenses will grow by 7.0% this year. While forecast revenues grow by just 3.2%”, says the study.
Affected by changes in ICMS charges on fuel and energy and without financial support from the Union that helped states during the Covid-19 pandemic, state finances became unbalanced, warns the Firjan study. Furthermore, personnel expenses, especially social security expenses, play a major role in this scenario.
The study states that the 2019 pension reform was not enough to guarantee budget balance in this field. According to the entity, in 2022, the pension deficit of the Federation units totaled R$86.1 billion.
Advertising
