Serra will be the first city in ES with one million inhabitants

Serra will be the first city in ES with one million inhabitants
Serra will be the first city in ES with one million inhabitants

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Espírito Santo is expected to increase its population in the coming decades and reach the mark of 4.4 million inhabitants by 2030. And the municipality that should lead this growth, according to experts, will be Serra.

It should be the first city in the State to reach the 1 million inhabitants mark, according to studies and analysis by entrepreneurs in the construction sector.

Espírito Santo has just over 3.8 million inhabitants, and the growth perspective is the result of a study by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which shows an increase in population by 9% between 2010 and 2022, being the 12th state with the highest growth in the country and the highest rate in the Southeast.

With 520,653 inhabitants, according to the Jones dos Santos Neves Institute, Serra had the highest percentage population gain in the State from 2010 to 2022. For Serra’s Secretary of Urban Development, Claudio Denicoli, the tendency is for it to reach the mark of 1 million inhabitants by 2050:

“We already have a series of subdivision projects in the city and construction companies intend to undertake them here. There will be a new real estate expansion in the municipality.”

Director of Torres Engenharia, Marcelo Torres says that Serra represents the third highest number of launches in the State. “We have already planned the next 10 years of the company’s advancement to meet the demand that will arise in the region.”

But growth is not limited to Serra: Vitória, Vila Velha, Cariacica, Linhares and Aracruz were cited by experts as among those with the greatest potential for population and real estate growth.

The North of the State is highlighted because, in recent years, it has received a series of industries and investments, such as Linhares airport and Porto da Imetame, in Aracruz, which expand the job offer and attract residents.

Vila Velha is seen as a major focus for construction companies. “The municipality has remained the largest construction site in the State. In the second half of 2023 alone, the city had 48.9% of the total new units launched in the State, and this is a trend for this year as well”, says the director of Kemp Engenharia, Rubia Zanelato.

In Vitória, the trend is towards growth in the West region of the Capital, in regions such as Santo Antônio and São Pedro, for example. Vitória City Hall even highlighted that since 2021, 96 new buildings have been approved.


Growth trend

  • Espírito Santo had a 9% growth in population from 2010 to 2022, rising from 3.5 million inhabitants to 3.8 million, according to IBGE, being the 12th state with the highest population growth in the country.
  • The expectation is that this growth will continue to occur, and that by 2030 the State will reach the mark of 4.4 million inhabitants.


According to experts, economic development is one of the main factors behind this population increase, combined with the high quality of life in the region.

Another highlighted factor is that the State has a higher life expectancy for people over 60 years of age. While the Brazilian average for people in this age group is to live another 23 years, in the State, elderly people in their 60s tend to live another 24.8 years.


1 – Saw

First to reach milestone in the State

  • The municipality with the largest number of inhabitants in the State currently, Serra is tipped to be the first city in Espírito Santo to reach the 1 million inhabitants mark. This is expected to happen by 2050.

Consolidated area

  • 35% of the municipality’s consolidated area (with water, sewage and paving) is still empty and can receive new housing developments.

New profile

  • One of the trends in Serra for the coming years is the emergence of enterprises with a premium profile, aimed at groups A and B of the population, which should also create greater economic development with the emergence of job demands in restaurants and stores.

2 – Vila Velha

Leader in ventures

srcset=”×236/Serra-sera-a-primeira-cidade-do-ES-com-um-milhao-d0017417501202404010708/ScaleUpProportional-1.webp ?fallback=%2Fimg%2Finline%2F170000%2FSerra-sera-the-first-city-of-ES-com-um-milhao-d0017417501202404010708.jpg%3Fxid%3D768888&xid=768888 600w, Costa Beach, in Vila Velha
  • Still in Greater Vitória, Vila Velha stands out for its expansive potential: construction companies and experts in the real estate sector highlight that the municipality has the most areas for new developments.
  • No wonder, according to a Sinduscon survey, it is the most targeted municipality for this type of investment: of the 5,727 residential properties scheduled to be launched in 2024, 2,250 will be in Vila Velha.
  • In other words, 39% of the total properties planned to be launched in the State are in the municipality of Canela-Verde.

3 – Victory

Heading west

  • The capital faces the challenge of having one of the most expensive square meters in the country and little space for construction, but experts have highlighted the trend of expansion towards the west of the island.
  • Some of the neighborhoods that have potential for housing expansion, according to experts consulted, were Santo Antônio, São Pedro, Centro, Ilha de Santa Maria, Maruípe and Jucutuquara.

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Investments in progress

  • When contacted, the city hall highlighted that public investments underway in Orla de São Pedro, in the Center and in Canal da Passagem should draw the attention of the real estate market to these development axes. He also reported that 96 new buildings in the city have been approved since 2021 and that 231 renovation and regularization projects are under discussion.

High standard

  • Despite the tendency to focus further west, high-end developments in more upscale regions, such as Praia do Canto, Enseada do Suá and in upper-middle class regions such as Bento Ferreira should also continue to be targeted by residential developments, more focused on condominiums of high standard.

4 – Cariacica

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  • The City Development Secretariat highlighted the growth potential of a series of regions that could soon receive housing and commercial developments, in addition to subdivisions:


  • The region and its surroundings can receive housing developments. The Cariacica-Sede neighborhood has been sought after for the implementation of multi-family housing projects, subdivisions and large supermarkets that do not currently exist in the neighborhood.

Large field

  • The city’s main neighborhood as it concentrates commercial and service activities that serve nearby neighborhoods and even neighboring municipalities, the region has also attracted high-end residential developments in the Dona Augusta subdivision area, the most unoccupied and residential area of ​​the neighborhood.

Alto Lage and Vila Capixaba

  • These are also neighborhoods that have attracted commercial and housing developments.


It is a residential area that is growing in the municipality with the Vista de Vitória subdivision.


5 – Linhares

Industry and development

  • Its population increased by 18.17% from 2010 to 2022, according to IBGE, benefiting from the performance of the oil and natural gas extraction industry, metallurgy and the manufacturing of food, textile and wood products, and has investments in the range of billions expected to occur by 2026.
  • The recent delivery of Linhares airport also attracts industries and should influence the region’s population increase.

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6 – Aracruz

Shipyard and port

  • Aracruz had a population increase of 15.8% from 2010 to 2022, according to IBGE. Its growth is being leveraged by the presence of companies in the region, such as Estaleiro Jurong.
  • The forecast is that with the completion of the works at the Imetame port and the inauguration of the first private Processing and Export Zone (ZPE) in the country, the municipality will receive even more people and expand its population in the coming years.

7 – Saint Matthew

  • Another municipality located in the northernmost region of the state is also favored by the arrival of industries in the region, which attracts new residents. The proximity of Linhares and Aracruz also helps, which will have ports and airports available for cargo transfer, also helping the region to grow in population.

8 – Colatina

  • Another municipality located in the northern region also benefits from the development of the region, with the presence of investments from companies that, until the beginning of the century, had not yet established themselves.
  • Last year, the municipality won an award from the Federation of State Industries (Findes) for its prominence as a hub for economic development.

9 – Guarapari

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  • Famous for its beaches, Guarapari should continue to receive new real estate and commercial developments in the coming years. Projects in the Amarelos region, Buenos Aires Enseada Azul and Meaípe should bring new residents to the region. Meaípe, in fact, had work on its shoreline completed last year, expanding the beach strip.
  • The Praia do Morro region, even with less space available, is another that should also receive new developments.

Source: Experts cited in the report, IBGE.



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The article is in Portuguese

Tags: Serra city million inhabitants



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