According to information released by TF Agroeconomic, it is not worth holding on to soybeans this year, even with the week’s highs. “If the producer had sold the soybeans as soon as they harvested, they would have had an income of R$ 122.23 now in May, but the price of the stone in Passo Fundo, at the moment, is R$ 117.00, a real loss of 4. 28%. In Cascavel, Paraná, the value would be R$ 115.17, but the price of the stone is R$ 114.00, a loss of 1.01%”, he comments.
Despite the increases observed both in the domestic market and in Chicago this week, driven by the floods in Rio Grande do Sul that will result in losses for the remaining 24% of the harvest and will make it difficult to deliver exports already committed for May, June and July, the outlook medium and long term for the market is downward, due to the substantial increase in global supply.
“Trading companies will look for lots that cannot be exported through Rio Grande from other Brazilian ports and the final buyer will practically not feel the lack, and will not need to significantly increase prices. In the domestic market, there may be a continuation of the slight increase in prices. So, our recommendation is to take advantage of the highs in Chicago and the domestic market and set profitable prices while they are still available”, they add.
The factors contributing to the drop are the large global supply and the strengthening of the North American economy, which “keeps the dollar valued and takes away the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans: the dollar in Brazil fell 2.37% in the month, 0.91% this week and 0.85% this Friday”. In the world, “final stocks are increasing – they were 93.09 MT in the 21/22 harvest, rose to 101.31 in the 22/23 harvest and are 114.22 MT in the 23/24 harvest, which means that every more and more soy in the world.”
On the upside, in addition to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, delays in the harvest in Argentina and the increase from B10 to B12 in Brazil “is stimulating demand and the crushing of soybeans, which find a reduced supply due to the problems of the last harvest, resulting in slight increase: soybean prices in Chicago rose 4.91% in the month, 3.64% in the week and 0.99% in the day, while prices in Brazil rose 1.64% in the month, 2.1% in the week and 0.94% on the day.”
