Brazil will stop collecting R$3.7 trillion by 2055 if it does not take advantage of new oil fields, says a study by a state-owned company linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy.
The survey will serve to support decisions on the topic and, therefore, should reinforce the arguments of the pro-exploitation wing of the government in the face of the environmental discourse for the move away from fossil fuels.
The numbers are from EPE (Energy Research Company) and indicate that the value corresponds to an annual average of R$155 billion during the period analyzed. The amount is almost the Bolsa Família budget (R$168 billion).
According to technicians, if the government stops exploring new fields — such as those in the Equatorial Margin — there would begin to be a decline in royalties and special participations (exploitation resources directed to public coffers) from 2032 onwards.
From that year until 2055, there would be R$2.9 trillion less in this item (which represents an average of R$121 billion per year).
The survey published last week states that there would also be a loss in the collection of direct and indirect taxes (such as IRPJ, CSLL and PIS/Cofins) of R$824 billion in the same period (or R$34 billion per year, on average).
Furthermore, the document says that reducing exploration would result in the need for net oil imports of R$2.1 billion, from 2024 to 2055, which would affect the trade balance for the period.
EPE states that the study is for informational purposes only and is intended to support planning for the national energy sector, with any decisions on public policies or strategic guidelines being the responsibility of other institutions.
The conclusions of the survey, however, point to a favorable view of continuing exploration in national territory.
“Stop producing oil would not imply a drastic reduction in national emissions [de gases de efeito estufa]since domestic consumption of petroleum derivatives would continue to exist, and the national demand for petroleum derivatives is growing until 2050”, states the state-owned company in the document.
The maintenance of fossil exploitation is contested by environmentalists, who defend a more accelerated reduction.
The last COP, the annual UN (United Nations) climate conference, endorsed the idea of a “phase out” of fossil fuels — a term that has been translated as “gradual exit”.
In an interview with Sheetthe Secretary of Climate Change at the Ministry of the Environment, Ana Toni, stated that she has not yet seen a plan in Brazil for oil to support the energy transition, and defended that the country accelerates the end of the use of fossils.
Heloísa Borges, director of Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels at EPE, states that in different scenarios it is possible for Brazil to achieve the global goal of zero net carbon emissions by 2050 even while continuing to explore oil.
For her, it is necessary to take advantage of the sector’s resources and knowledge to advance on different fronts of the energy transition.
“As we already have an established value chain in Brazil, the optimal strategy is to take advantage of this value chain and build incentives for it to diversify and for our industry to become more robust, instead of trying to advance in technologies that we does not dominate”, he states.
“To do this, we need to take advantage of income from oil and gas and direct this income to the sectors we want”, he says.
“What is Brazil’s aptitude? Biofuels. And we can migrate biofuels, couple with the oil and gas sector and advance in biorefining with synthetic fuels, migrate to carbon capture and offshore wind.”
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Another argument mentioned by EPE is that Brazilian oil pollutes less than foreign oil.
According to Borges, this happens because the country has higher safety and environmental requirements and because pre-salt productivity is higher and, therefore, the same energy is demanded to result in more production.
The statements are in line with that of Minister Alexandre Silveira (Mines and Energy), who told Sheet this month that sees Brazil exploring oil until it becomes a developed country.
They are also similar to the vision expressed by different seminar participants invited by the ministry — who demonstrated alignment with the continuity of exploration combined with the use of resources for the energy transition and the country’s social demands.
Rosangela Buzanelli, a Petrobras advisor elected by workers, states that the country’s current reserves only exist for a maximum of 13 years and that the country depends on oil money.
“We really need oil income to reduce energy poverty and increase human development in the country. If we don’t do it, we will have to import from abroad with a carbon footprint worse than ours. So I don’t think that’s the way out. We need , yes, of the new frontiers”, he states.
Luciana Costa, director of Energy Transition and Climate Change at BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development), says that, on the other hand, the debate on climate transition is not resolved for Brazil and that companies need to do more.
“Companies need to be pressured to invest in new technologies. The game is not won for Brazil, and we have to challenge ourselves. We have to open up new fields [de petróleo]Yes, but we have to challenge ourselves to accelerate the transition”, he states.
She defends that it is essential to intensify efforts to invest in new technologies, such as offshore wind (on the high seas) — as Petrobras’ expertise in the ocean can be used to invest in new energy fronts.
“The debate has to migrate from ‘no more oil’ to the debate on climate urgency, to accelerate new technologies that are expensive,” he says.
