The short-term IPCA+ Treasury bond rate reached a one-year high this Tuesday (23). In the last update, at 1 pm (Brasília time), the Tesouro Direto website recorded a premium of 6.12% plus inflation. The last time this rate was reached was in March 2023.
In recent days, fixed income securities have renewed their rates, as the market sees more risk for investments. The Treasury IPCA+ 2029, of 6.12%, started the month offering a real interest of 5.75%.
Other inflation headlines followed the movement. The Treasury IPCA+ 2035 went from 5.86% on April 1st to 6.03%. The last time he was at this level was in April 2023.
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And it’s not just inflation bonds that have driven up rates in recent times. Prefixed rates are close to 1% per month, the highest premium since the securities were issued at the beginning of this year. Prefixed 2027 reached a record of 11.10% on April 17th. This Tuesday, it is at 10.85%.
One of the reasons for the upward revision is interest rates in the United States. Since January, the market has been postponing its estimate of an interest rate cut by the American central bank, with employment and consumption data indicating that the economy remains strong, with risks of a rebound in inflation.
Given this scenario, the possibility of a cut was postponed from March to June, and now there is speculation that the cut could happen in the middle of the second semester.
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This Tuesday, Brazilian economists and analysts also renewed their perspectives of higher interest rates here, according to a publication in the Focus Bulletin. The current expectation is that the Selic will close 2024 at 9.50%. In the previous week, the upward revision had been from 9% to 9.13%. There were two weeks of increases in the estimate, after 18 weeks of stable rates.
An aggravating factor in this week’s bulletin was the revision of the Selic in 2025: from 8.5% for 19 consecutive weeks to 9.0%.
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Check the prices and rates of public bonds available for purchase at Tesouro Direto this Tuesday (16):
