The consequences of the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul were considered in the review of soybean production estimates for the country, made by AgResource Brasil for the 23/24 harvest.
Now, the consultancy points out that Brazil must produce 144.59 million tons of the grain. This is a slight reduction in the final numbers. Despite the upward area adjustments (the company estimated 0.4 million hectares above that projected by Conab), the losses of the gauchos were able to put downward pressure on the final harvest number.
Thus, losses in soybean area will be approximately 0.29 million hectares in the state, with production losses projected at 1.78 million tons.
Furthermore, AgResource Brasil highlights that the impacts in the southern state will not be exclusively due to damage to crops, but also due to hundreds of roadblocks.
“The grain storage potential in Rio Grande do Sul represents 16% of Brazil’s total storage, in addition to almost 15% of Brazil’s soybean processing capacity being in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The impacts are still immeasurable”, highlights the consultancy.
Rains continue to threaten
Climatological forecasts indicate that the rains will still continue in the South region until May 23rd, with accumulations of 100 to 180mm in practically all of Rio Grande do Sul’s soil, which maintains the risk of landslides and should hinder the progress of rescue teams.
In addition, widespread cold is forecast for the state in the next two weeks. “There is still a tendency for Conab to increase the area in the May report in relation to April, but Rio Grande do Sul could be the main guide for the final numbers”, highlights the consultancy.
In corn, AgResource Brasil redid its analyzes for this season. The production estimate is 113.11 MMT, slightly lower at 1.08 MMT, a drop of 0.95% compared to the company’s own estimate of 114.19 MMT, now with productivity of approximately 5.47 Ton/ha.
In addition to soybeans, corn
Regarding corn, the 2023/24 summer harvest in Rio Grande do Sul was largely halted with 83% of crops harvested.
AgResource estimates a potential impact of 1.31 million tons on national production if the problems continue, but what is already estimated is a 36% reduction in the area to be harvested (until May 6), or 9% on the total planted area estimated by Conab – that is, a production of approximately 4.44 million tons, a drop of 13.55% in relation to what was initially expected.
Still, AgResource’s estimate of Brazil’s total corn production is 1.94% higher than what Conab reported in the April report.
Finally, wheat in Rio Grande do Sul has 0% planted area until May 6th. It is worth remembering that state production represents almost 35% of the country’s internal demand, in addition to 45% of production and 42% of the total area. Thus, the impact of the rains will be felt throughout Brazil.
