The Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) — considered the preview of the country’s official inflation — recorded a 0.21% increase in prices in Aprilreported this Friday (26) the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The biggest influence again comes from the Food and beverages group, with an increase of 0.61% in the month and an impact of 0.13 percentage points (pp) on the general index.
With the results, the IPCA-15 accumulated 3.77% in the 12-month window.
The numbers came below financial market expectations. Projections were for an increase of 0.29% for April, reaching 3.85% in 12 months.
Eight of the nine groups surveyed by IBGE had price increases in April. Only Transport had deflation in the month (-0.49%), with the main drop coming from airfare, which saw a decline of 12.2% and contributed -0.09 pp to the general index.
Fuels also saw relief (-0.03%), with a drop in gasoline (-0.11%), vehicle gas (-0.97%) and diesel oil (-0.43%). Ethanol rose 0.87% in the month.
See below the variation of groups in April
- Food and beverages: 0.61%;
- Housing: 0.07%;
- Household items: 0.03%;
- Clothing: 0.41%;
- Transport: -0.49%;
- Health and personal care: 0.78%;
- Personal expenses: 0.40%;
- Education: 0.05%;
- Communication: 0.17%.
Food continues to pressure
Within the Food and beverages group (0.61%), the highlight was once again Food at home, which includes the prices of fresh food.
In the month of April, the subgroup rose 0.74%, with increases in tomatoes (17.87%), garlic (11.60%), onions (11.31%), fruits (2.59%) and long-life milk (1.96%). The IBGE records falls in potatoes (-8.72%) and meat (-1.43%).
Food away from home continues to rise at a more moderate pace. In the month, it slowed to 0.25% against 0.59% in March. The IBGE highlights a less intense increase in meals (0.76% in March to 0.07% in April).
Along with food, the Health and personal care group weighed on the month’s results (0.78% increase, with 0.10 pp in the index). According to IBGE, the biggest contribution (0.05 pp) came from pharmaceutical products (1.36%), after the authorization of an adjustment of up to 4.50% in medicine prices, starting March 31st.
Also worth highlighting was the health plan (0.77%), which continues to incorporate monthly installments of adjustments to new and old plans for the 2023 to 2024 cycle.
See the items with the highest contribution positive in IPCA-15.
- Tomato: 17.87% in the month and 0.05 pp
- Health insurance: 0.77% in the month and 0.03 pp
- Onion: 11.31% in the month and 0.02 pp
- Cinema, theater and concerts: 3.76% in the month and 0.02 pp
- Papaya: 14.29% in the month and 0.02 pp
See the items with the highest contribution negative in IPCA-15.
- Airfare: -12.20% in the month and -0.09 pp
- English potato: -8.72% in the month and -0.02 pp
- Ribeye: -3.49% in the month and -0.01 pp
- Rice: -1.89% in the month and -0.01 pp
- Tour package: -2.10% in the month and -0.01 pp
Market predicts GDP above 2%, higher inflation and smaller drop in Selic
