The Selic rate has been falling since 2023 and lower interest rates have tightened the tap on fixed income securities yielding at least 1% per month. However, this does not mean that there are no good alternatives out there: it is still possible to find corporate bonds with a good credit rating, with real interest rates above 6% per year, and also exempt from income tax.
Itaú BBA analysts made a selection of debenture options, CRIs and CRAs, all exempt from income tax for individual investors, with rates linked to the IPCA and significant premiums in relation to equivalent Treasury bonds.
“The premiums above the equivalent NTN-B of these securities reach 1.25 percentage points. If we consider the profitability after the incidence of income tax on public bonds, the premiums on the selected bonds vary from 1.5 pp to 2.9 pp”, say analysts at the house in a report.
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Inflation-linked bonds have been the main choice among experts to make up a fixed income portfolio. “We have been positioned in IPCA+ for some time, since, even with the process of slowing inflation that we are following, we still see opportunities in indexed fixed income”, says Gabriela Joubert, chief strategist at Inter.
Recently, renowned manager Luis Stuhlberger, founding partner of Verde Asset Management, stated that he sees an “immense opportunity” for allocation in inflation bonds.
See the titles chosen by Itaú BBA:
| Code B3 | Issuer | NTN-B reference | Maturity | Rate (IPCA + %) | Rating (S&P/Fitch) |
| CRA02300W3P | Atacadão (Carrefour Brasil) | 2028 | 01/2029 | 6.3 | brAAA/– |
| RUMOA2 | Direction | 2028 | 02/2029 | 6.2 | brAAA/AAA(bra) |
| RISP12 | River Waters 1 | 2032 | 01/2034 | 7.1 | brAA+/– |
| CBAN72 | Flag Routes | 2032 | 07/2034 | 7.0 | –/AAA(bra) |
| CBAN12 | Flag Routes | 2032 | 07/2034 | 6.5 | –/AAA(bra) |
| RUMOB5 | Direction | 2035 | 12/2035 | 6.2 | brAAA/AAA(bra) |
| CMIN22 | CSN Mineração | 2035 | 07/2037 | 7.1 | brAAA/AAA(bra) |
Pay attention to deadlines and ratings
Although they are a great investment option right now, inflation-linked bonds have an important detail: the volatility. “I really like inflation bonds, which offer very attractive rates, but longer bonds are very risky, they need to be balanced with the investor’s profile”, says Caio Camargo, investment strategist at Santander.
Itaú BBA highlights that these bonds are interesting for investors who want to invest with gains above inflation, however “knowing that the security may suffer from mark-to-market until maturity”.
For those who don’t deal with volatility so well, shorter maturities are more suitable. Especially now, when the market expects interest rates to stay higher for longer.
This Tuesday (23), the Focus Bulletin showed that economists revised the final Selic rate in 2024 to 9.5%, after months of a projection of 9.0%. Some banks and analysis houses are even more pessimistic, predicting interest rates at 10% at the end of the cutting cycle.
