US Under Secretary of State for Arms, Deterrence and Stability, Paul Dean, appealed to China It is Russia renounce artificial intelligence (AI) in the use of nuclear weapons, as they did U.S, France It is UK. Given the fierce competition and the advantages that AI provides in war, a commitment in this regard is one of humanity’s greatest challenges.
Cooperation in this field between the US and Russia reached its lowest level even before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin and former President Donald Trump let nuclear warhead reduction agreements expirewhile new protocols, such as AI, and new technologies, such as hypersonic missiles, were experimented with.
In 2017, Putin told Russian students, referring to AI: “Whoever becomes a leader in this sphere will dominate the world.” At the same time, the Chinese government set the goal of becoming a world leader in AI research by 2030. Both regimes see AI as a historic opportunity to reverse American and European technological superiority.
The US and China resumed discussions on nuclear warhead control agreements in January. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was recently in Beijingwill return in the coming weeks to discuss AI.
Amid tensions in Asia, exercise in California prepares soldiers for a new type of warfare with drones guided by Artificial Intelligence. Photograph: Defense Visual Information Distribution Service/AP
It is a cooperation that is as crucial as it is difficult, because depends on building trust, a scarce value. In August 2022, President Joe Biden signed the law that prevents China’s access to the most advanced semiconductors and machine assembly technology for their manufacture.
Xi Jinping complains that this ban is intended to hinder China’s technological development. It makes it difficult to create an environment of cooperation and encourages the annexation of Taiwan, which manufactures 90% of these chips.
Handing over the use of nuclear weapons to artificial intelligence is potentially a suicide for the human species; not doing so, while the enemy does, amounts to surrender.
Machines learn with probabilistic calculations and analyze variables at a speed that the human mind cannot conceive. In a hypothetical future scenario, it is plausible to fear that, if the machine is programmed to achieve victory, whatever the cost, it will have no reason to retreat in the face of the risk of annihilation of the human species.
There are three levels of weapon interface. “In the loop” means that the human operator can interfere in any phase of the operation, including aborting an attack, changing the target or trajectory, in the case of a guided missile. “On the loop” is a limited intervention capability, but it still allows you to abort the attack. “Off the loop” implies that the human being only fires the weapon, which from then on responds only to the AI’s commands.
Western powers propose the first option, which preserves the human capacity to “observe, guide, decide and act” — OODA, in military jargon.
Individually, no one sees the point in putting humanity and the planet at risk to win a war, which by definition would have no winners, either because the world would be destroyed or because machines would be in charge.
But the collective, competition and power have their own internal dynamics, which lead to irrational decisions. Like the bettor who, against all statistical logic, believes he will do well.
How to contain this dynamic? In 1985, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev met in Geneva to negotiate nuclear arms reduction agreements. The broad meeting with advisors was not productive.
The two went for a walk along Lake Geneva and ended up in a private meeting, with only their interpreters, by a fireplace. Reagan asked, “If the US were invaded by aliens, would the USSR come to defend us?” Gorbachev replied: “Of course.” Reagan concluded: “I feel the same way about you.”
The atmosphere changed. The agreements unlocked from there.
The world situation is different. At that time, the Soviet Union was experiencing decline and, most importantly, Gorbachev understood this. This realization led to the end of the Cold War.
Xi feels China can challenge Western leadership and regain its rightful place. The alliance with Russia, a dependent partner and supplier of energy and food, reinforces Xi’s determination to challenge the international order. Putin’s revanchism, on his part, is fueled by what he sees as Gorbachev’s “surrender” and Russia’s “humiliation.”
If in 1985 Russia’s decline contributed to peace, today it is a threat.
Tags: Limiting Artificial Intelligence nuclear weapons crucial difficult
--
