US election: survey shows Trump ahead of Biden
The race for nomination for the Democratic Party candidate for president of the United States officially begins this Saturday (3) with the primaries in the state of South Carolina.
Although President Joe Biden is the favorite, there are two people who are formally competing with him for the nomination. The candidates are as follows:
- Joe Biden, current US President, former US Vice President and former US Senator.
- Marianne Williamson, author of self-help books.
- Dean Phillips, Representative for the State of Minnesota.
Biden is expected to be the winner of the primaries, but beyond this result, the number of voters who turn out will be important, even if it is in a vote in which there is no real dispute.
In the 2020 elections, the South Carolina primaries were key to Biden becoming the Democratic Party’s nominee. He has already stated that it was there that his victory began that year.
However, the state’s electorate traditionally votes for the Republican Party. In the 2020 elections, Trump defeated Biden by almost 12 percentage points. The last time the state was won by a Democrat was in 2008, with Barack Obama.
Why, then, is this vote important for Biden?
This is the first time that South Carolina has hosted the first official Democratic Party primary election.
The expectation is that this will increase support from black voters. Party authorities also see the location as a springboard for a new strategy: to win back voters in the south of the country in the coming years.
Democrats have no chance of winning South Carolina in November’s presidential election, but the state is key to current President Joe Biden’s re-election chances.
The Democratic Party has struggled to achieve good results in the region since the 1960s, a time of civil rights protests. But the increase in migration to southern states in recent years and state victories in Kentucky and North Carolina, in addition to Biden’s narrow triumph in Georgia in 2020, have raised hopes that the party can improve its performance, starting with the election. November general.
Despite the modest numbers nationally, Democrats hope that Biden can win North Carolina, a state that has only won a Democrat once since 1980. There is also the expectation that the party can carry some important electoral districts in the South from the country.
In the long term, leaders aim for victories for the government and the Senate in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Biden visited South Carolina before the vote.
Strength of the Republican Party in the region
It is unlikely that the Democratic Party will be able to reverse the balance in the Republican stronghold. The president of the Republican Party in the state, Drew McKissick, says that the Democrats’ progressive positions on all issues — from the economy to customs — repulse the region’s most conservative voters.
“Having an early primary will not help their party grow in a state when the roots of the problem are their positions on the issues,” he said.
The South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for February 24, following contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Former President Donald Trump is the clear favorite to win the party’s nomination to run against Biden in November.
With a population of 5 million inhabitants, South Carolina is among the North American states with the lowest income and educational level. But its population grows at a greater rate than in any other entity in the Federation. This is because some Americans worried about inflation and tired of the pandemic, including retirees, are looking for a place to live with a lower cost of living and a warmer subtropical climate. Unemployment is just 3%, one of the lowest in history.
For Democrats, the state is a relatively cheap place to hire people and campaign for the purpose of testing which issues are relevant to voters of color and those who live in rural areas.
In presidential elections, blacks vote for the Democratic party at a rate of 9 to 1. One in five voters in the South is black, compared to 1 to 7 in the US as a whole. However, black abstention is higher than that recorded among white voters.