In 1500, before the eruption, the area had an elevation of about 7 meters. Afterwards, the level gradually decreased. Between 1969 and 1972 and between 1982 and 1984 there were new crises with seismic activity, with an elevation of approximately 3.5 meters. During this period, part of the population had to be evacuated from the city of Pozzuoli because of earthquakes.
Now the ground is rising about 1.5 cm per month. Therefore, there is concern about the buildings in the region.
There are two possible scenarios regarding the evolution of the situation on the Campi Flegrei: the best is that the ongoing Bradissismo crisis ends as it happened in 1983-84; the worst is an eruption similar to the one in 1538.
Carlo Doglioni, president of Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, speaking to the government’s Environmental Commission
In September, Giuseppe de Natale, former head of the Institute’s Vesuvius observatory, told Reuters that, if there is an eruption, the tendency is for it to be of the phreatic or steam explosion type. In other words, it would be relatively weak and without new magma.
Currently, I believe the most immediate risk is seismic. But it is clear that the possibility of an eruption also needs to be considered.
Giuseppe In Natale, in an interview with Reuters in September
*With information from Reuters.