O Marketplace financial improved The forecast price increase for this year. Inflation estimates for 2022 dropped from 6.82% to 6.70%. The perspectives are part of the Focus bulletin, released this Monday (29) by the Central Bank.
For the new consecutive time, economists reduced the inflation forecast, measured by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for this year. THE new review of prices accompanies the reduction of taxes on items considered fundamentalsuch as electricity and fuel.
At the end of June, President Jair Bolsonaro sanctioned a project that sets a ceiling for the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) on various goods. Due to this measure, states began to charge a lower tax rate on the respective items.
In the meantime, according to the august inflation preview — measured by the IPCA-15 — the prices fell by 0.73%. This was the lowest rate in the historical series of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
However, the current forecast of rising prices remains above target for this year, established by the National Monetary Council (CMN). For 2022, the center of the inflation target is of 3.5% — may fluctuate 1.5 percentage points up or down.
Price increase forecast for 2023
For the next yeareconomists also reduced the I estimated increase in prices, from 5.33% to 5.30%. This was the second downward revision for 2023.
Still, the most recent perspective follows above the center of the inflation target, of 3.25% — with the same margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points.
Market forecast for interest rates
Economists have maintained prediction for the basic interest rate, the Selicfor 2022. The estimate is that the indicator close this year at 13.75%.
For 2023, the market also maintained its forecast regarding the basic interest rate. There is a prospect that the Selic will end the next year at 11%. That is, the estimate is that the interest rate will fall over the next few months.
The Selic rate is the main instrument used by the Central Bank to control inflation. As a way to contain the rise in prices registered in recent months, the monetary authority has already raised the interest rate twelve consecutive times. Currently, the Selic is at 13.75% per year.
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