The dollar is volatile this Thursday morning, 1, and fell around 9:40 am with adjustments of residual positions at the turn of the month and realization, after two strong rises in a row against the real. Foreign capital inflows are on the radar after negative activity data in the eurozone and China.
This Wednesday, the 31st, the last day of August, the dollar in the spot market engaged the second day of firm rise and ended the trading session surpassing the barrier of R$ 5.20, to R$ 5.2015, (+1, 73%).
With an advance of 2.43% this week, the American currency ended last month with a slight gain of 0.53%. But in 2022, it carries losses of 6.71% against the real. The dollar futures for October closed Wednesday up 1.13%, at R$5.2245.
Overseas investors are bolstering demand for protection this morning, which boosts US currency and Treasuries returns, still supported by expectations of an aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) against inflation at the September 21 monetary meeting.
A rise of 75 basis points (bp) remains the main bet in markets for the Fed meeting on Sept. 21. The market awaits the jobs report, the payroll, from the United States, which will be released this Friday, 2nd. The bad mood this morning still reflects worrying numbers of activity in China and Europe.
Investors rally to Germany’s and eurozone’s PMIs, which fell to 26-month lows, pointing to economic contraction. In the euro zone, after the annual CPI hit a new record high of 9.1% in August, above analysts’ forecasts, the ECB is also expected to tighten up further at its next meeting on 9 September.
In Asia, China’s industrial PMI calculated by Caixin dropped from 50.4 to 49.5 in August, entering contractionary territory, which weighed on the region’s stock exchanges, in addition to the influence of yesterday’s losses on the New York stock exchanges.
Local investors are also analyzing Brazilian GDP growth in the second quarter of 1.2%, above the market median at the margin (+0.9%) and also up 3.2% year-on-year, compared to the expected median. by economists of +2.8%. Also according to the IBGE, GDP for the second quarter of 2022 totaled BRL 2.4 trillion.
Also on the radar is the possibility of an announcement of a new reduction in fuel prices by Petrobras, starting on Friday, signaled yesterday by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), candidate for reelection in October.
The market awaits confirmation to estimate the impact of low inflation in the country. Among commodities, oil futures contracts and the price of iron ore continue to decline. A barrel of oil lost more than 1% in New York and London and the most traded iron ore, for January delivery, on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped 1.17% to 675.50 yuan, equivalent to US$97.9.
The October contract on the Singapore Stock Exchange was down 4.3% to US$ 96.25 a ton, amid new outbreaks of covid-19 in the country and the worst heat wave in six decades, which led to rationing. energy and hurt Chinese manufacturing. In addition, the real estate crisis is also weighing on China’s financial sector.
At 9:41 am this Thursday, the spot dollar was down 0.38%, at R$5.1810, compared to a high of R$5.2235 in the first trades. The dollar for October lost 0.12%, at R$ 5.2210, compared to a high intraday high at R$ 5.1620.