The government will send the 2023 Annual Budget Law Project (PLOA) to Congress today, surrounded by care. so as not to harm the campaign for the reelection of President Jair Bolsonaro, since there is no space for his main promises. The Auxílio Brasil, for example, will be R$ 400 on paper, but the technicians will indicate the continuation of R$ 600 next year. Yesterday, Bolsonaro linked the possibility to the privatization of state-owned companies.
The feasibility of the benefit will require changes in legislation, through a new proposal for an amendment to the Constitution (PEC), which would change the spending ceiling (a rule that limits the increase in federal expenses to inflation). Today, there is no room for the benefit, which would cost BRL 160 billion in 2023.
On the other hand, like the Budget Guidelines Law, the text should keep the reserve for the secret budget, which should consume around R$ 19 billion next year.
The current benefit of R$ 600 is only valid until December — the law passed in Congress provides for resources only until the end of this year. Afterwards, it would go back to R$ 400. The increase in the benefit is Bolsonaro’s greatest electoral asset to rise in the polls, which has not yet happened in an expressive way.
Bolsonaro and other presidential candidates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), Simone Tebet (MDB) and Ciro Gomes (PDT) promised to keep aid at a higher value in 2023.
Yesterday, Bolsonaro said he intends to keep the R$600 value of Auxílio Brasil next year with the sale of state-owned companies, without specifying which companies can be privatized. He was asked why the boosted benefit was not in the budget project.
‘Can’t you change it?’ We have a program to complement that, when selling state-owned companies, with responsibility — said the president, at the end of an event in the trade and services sector.
Asked about the possibility that the government will not be able to sell the companies, and therefore not maintain the value, the president replied that “it will”.
Another Bolsonaro campaign promise, the update on the individual’s Income Tax table should not be provided for in the PLOA that will be delivered today. He promised exemption for those earning up to five minimum wages (today, R$6,060) — currently, the exemption range is R$1,903.98 per month.
Members of the economic team say that there is no room in the Budget for an adjustment in the table at this time. In addition, there is a strategy by Paulo Guedes’ team to focus on a reform of the entire tax, including the collection of tax on dividends, which are currently exempt.
The budget proposal will also bring a reserve of about R$ 10 billion to readjust the salary of Executive servants, without specifying percentage increase. The government does not intend to define whether the readjustment will be linear to all servers or only to specific categories.
Unable to pass an administrative reform, Bolsonaro said yesterday that his greatest achievement in this area was to limit the holding of public tenders. Among the institutions that have had contests in recent years are the Federal Police and the Federal Highway Police, part of the president’s support base.
— The biggest administrative reform, which is very difficult to approve in Parliament, is really the containment of the number of servers — he said, adding: — Avoiding public tenders, even to protect the current servers that are there. I know a lot of young people get upset, they want a contest, but the machine is at its limit.