After amending two consecutive falls, the dollar rose again this Friday (2), with an increase of 1.08%, quoted at R$ 4,968. During the week, the North American currency still accumulates an increase of 1.18% against the real.
The Ibovespa fell 1.01%, to 127,182.25 points, after two consecutive sessions of increases. During the week, the main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) fell 1.38%.
The value of the dollar reported daily by the press, including the UOL, refers to the commercial dollar (learn more by clicking here). For those who are going to travel and need to buy currency at exchange brokers, the reference is the tourist dollar, and the value is much higher.
USA has an increase in job openings. The North American economy opened 353,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department reported this Friday. That number was likely because the economy’s resilience and strong worker productivity encouraged companies to hire and retain more workers, a trend that could protect the economy from a recession this year. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, compared to a projection of 3.8%.
After data, the chance of interest rates being maintained increased. The indicators also affected the bets on the decisions of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the North American central bank) for May, with an increase in the chance of the level remaining unchanged, even though the chance of the start of relief continues to be the most likely outcome of the meeting.
On Wednesday (31), the Fed left interest rates unchanged. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered a sweeping endorsement of the economy’s strength, telling reporters that interest rates have peaked and will fall in the coming months, but ruled out March.
The drop in iron ore in China and the noise involving Vale also generate caution. The mining company’s shares are in focus, on the day of the extraordinary Vale board meeting that will assess whether the company’s current president, Eduardo Bartolomeo, remains in office. According to Broadcast, the expectation is that the meeting will end without a final decision, which could increase the noise surrounding the issue.
Brazilian industrial production rose 1.1% in December compared to November in the seasonally adjusted series. In relation to December 2022, production rose 1.0%, compared to the expected negative median of 0.3%. Thus, Brazilian industry closed the year 2023 with an increase of 0.2%, reported the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). In 2022, the result had been a drop of 0.7%.
The payroll [relatório de emprego dos EUA] it came absurdly strong. The strength of the job market in the USA is impressive. The interest rate scenario completely changes. It removes any possibility of cutting the country’s interest rates in March and also puts into question the chance of a reduction in May.
Jefferson Laatus, chief strategist at Laatus Group
*With Agência Brasil, Estadão Conteúdo and Reuters