Ibovespa falls 1% with US payroll

Ibovespa falls 1% with US payroll
Ibovespa falls 1% with US payroll
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The stock market today started the day with a fall and maintained a pessimistic tone throughout the trading session. Investors became more cautious with United States payroll data, the official indicator of job openings in the country. Thus, the Ibovespa ended the session down 1.01%, at 127,182.25 points, while the dollar gained momentum against the real. During the week, the index fell 1.38%.

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The North American currency, against the Ibovespa, rose more than 1%. Analysts say that the rise in the exchange rate also came after the release of the payroll abroad, signaling lower risk appetite outside the American economy, which shows resilience. The dollar rose 1.07% against the real, quoted at R$4.9683.

See the highlights of Ibovespa this Friday (2).

Ibovespa today

The Ibovespa registered a widespread drop this Friday, showing that investors operated cautiously with pressure from the external scenario.

The payroll data came in above market expectations, explains Stefany Oliveira, analyst at Toro Investimentos. This led to a general devaluation of stock exchanges, both in Brazil and in the USA. “The interest rate cut movement (in the US) should not happen as quickly as the market would like”, she adds.

Here, the data led to a rise in the future interest curve, following the opening of Treasuries in the USA. The DI futures contract rate for 2027 advanced 85 basis points, while the rate for 2028 rose 95 bps.

The market’s expectation of interest cuts taking place in March waned along with the payroll. “The Ibovespa sank in accordance with reality, which is proving harsh and may increasingly justify postponing the start of interest cuts in the US,” says Alexsandro Nishimura, economist at Nomos Capital.

Abroad, big techs helped the New York stock exchanges reverse the fall. At Ibovespa, on the other hand, the main falls were in shares that were more sensitive to interest rates.

Among the losses, the highlight was the share of Cogna (COGN3). The stock fell to its lowest point of the year, at R$2.51, after BTG Pactual indicated in a report that the company should continue to be under pressure to generate cash for shareholders.

Gerdau (GGBR4), on the other hand, rose 2.38% after a report from Goldman Sachs bank recommending the purchase of the stock. The share of Gerdau Metalúrgica (GOAU4) followed the appreciation of the stock, rising 1.52%.

Dolar today

The North American currency ended today’s trading session on a sharp rise against the real. The dollar rose 1.07%, quoted at R$4.9683. At its highest, the exchange rate reached close to R$4.98, but lost strength throughout the session.

Even so, experts point out that the main reason was the release of the payroll, this Friday. “The later the Fed begins to reduce interest rates, the greater the benefit for the dollar”, says Luis Felipe Bazzo, CEO of Transferbank. The higher-than-expected employment data “justifies a cautious stance” by the American central bank.

Likewise, on the global stage, the US currency has gained strength against other important currencies, such as the yen and the euro. The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s performance in relation to international peers, rose 0.47%, to 103,922 points.

Best shares on the stock market

ClearSale (CSLA3) had the biggest rise on the stock exchange today, considering all Bovespa indices. The software company’s share rose 11.26%, driven by a strong purchase flow from the bank Morgan Stanley.

Check out the five main increases on Bovespa this Friday (2). The list was prepared considering all B3 indices and only securities with a transaction volume of R$1 million or more in the intraday.

  1. ClearSale ON (CSLA3): +11.26%
  2. Recrusul PN (RCSL4): +8.70%
  3. Live ON (VIVR3): +4.12%
  4. Banco Pan PN (BPAN4): +4.10%
  5. Helbor ON (HBRE3): +3.95%

Worst stocks on the stock market

On the other hand, the worst stock on the stock market was Miter (MTRE3). The company’s shares fell 7.87% on the stock exchange today.

See below the five worst shares on Bovespa. The ranking follows the same criteria as the best stocks.

  1. Miter ON (MTRE3): -7.87%
  2. Cogna ON (COGN3): -6.94%
  3. Gafisa ON (GFSA3): -6.81%
  4. Goal PN (GOLL4): -6.72%
  5. Qualicorp ON (QUAL3): -6.67%

New York Stock Exchanges

New York stock exchanges closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 at record levels, after gains accelerated during Friday afternoon.

Technology stocks induced a positive mood on Wall Street, with a jump of more than 20% in the Target in reaction to projections above expectations and the announcement of an unprecedented dividend payment by the company that owns Facebook. The scenario overlapped with uncertainties about interest rate cuts in the US.

Thus, the Dow Jones index advanced 0.35%, to 38,654.42 points. The S&P 500 gained 1.07%, to 4,958.61 points while the Nasdaq rose 1.74%, to 15,628.95 points.

During the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.43%; the S&P 500, 1.38% and the Nasdaq, 1.12%.

European Stock Exchanges

European stock markets closed mixed this Friday (2) after reducing their rise during the trading session after the higher-than-expected payroll in the USA further reduced the likelihood of monetary relief beginning in March.

In London, the FTSE-100 dropped 0.09%, to 7,615.54 points. On the continent, the DAX, in Frankfurt, rose 0.35%, to 16,918.21 points, while the CAC-40, in Paris, changed by +0.05%, to 7,592.26 points. The FTSE MIB, in Milan, rose 0.09%, to 30,717.95 points.

Finally, in Madrid, the Ibex-35 managed to break away from the cautious atmosphere and rose 0.48%, to 10,062.50 points. The PSI-20, in Lisbon, dropped 0.45%, to 6,257.38 points.

Payroll impacts the stock market today

The payroll, the United States employment report, released this Friday morning by the US Bureau of Labor, showed an increase of 353 thousand new jobs in January. Thus, payroll comes in well above expectations and negatively impacts stock market performance today.

The market estimate was 185 thousand jobs created in the period. In December, job creation was 216 thousand.

As a result, in January, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.

Industrial production in Brazil also moves Ibovespa

Industrial production rose 1.1% in December compared to November, in the seasonally adjusted series, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced this Friday morning.

Thus, the result came at the ceiling of the projections of analysts interviewed by Projeções Broadcast, who expected a drop of 0.3% to an increase of 1.1% with a positive median of 0.2%.

In relation to December 2022, industrial production rose 1.0%, according to IBGE. In this comparison, without adjustment, estimates ranged from a decline of 1.8% to an increase of 1.2%, with a negative median of 0.3%.

As a result, future interest rates operated around stability in the morning. At 9:20 am this Friday, the interbank deposit (DI) contract rate for January 2025 reached a minimum of 9.925%, from 9.934%, and that for January 2027 was at a minimum of 9.735%, from 9.748% in the previous adjustment.

In this sense, the DI for January 2029 was 10.170%, from 10.188% in Thursday’s adjustment. The interest rate on the 10-year T-note rose to 3.874% (compared to 3.856%) and the 30-year T-bond reached a minimum of 4.097% (compared to 4.096%).

With information from Estadão Content

Financial Intelligence is a journalistic channel and this content should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell investments. Before investing, check your investor profile, your objectives and always stay well informed.

The article is in Portuguese

Tags: Ibovespa falls payroll

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