Grain production is on track to reach an all-time high, boosting overall supply and trade prospects
The benchmark for world food prices fell further in January, albeit slightly, led by declines in cereal and meat prices, which more than offset rising sugar prices, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said. Food and Agriculture (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly variations in international prices for a range of food products sold worldwide, recorded an average of 118 points in January, a drop of 1% compared to December and 10. 4% compared to its corresponding value a year ago.
The FAO Cereal Price Index decreased by 2.2 percent from the previous month. Global wheat export prices declined in January, driven by strong competition among exporters and the arrival of recently harvested supplies from southern hemisphere countries, while corn prices fell sharply, reflecting improved crop conditions and the start of the harvest. in Argentina and greater offers in the United States of America. In contrast, rice price quotations rose 1.2 percent in January, reflecting strong export demand for higher quality Indica rice from Thailand and Pakistan and additional purchases by Indonesia.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased marginally by 0.1% from December – but was still 12.8% lower than the previous year – reflecting moderate increases in international palm and sunflower seed oil prices, offsetting the declines in the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils. World palm oil prices were driven by seasonally lower production in key producing countries and concerns over unfavorable weather conditions in Malaysia. Meanwhile, increased import demand has slightly increased sunflower seed oil prices. In contrast, international prices for soybean and rapeseed oil declined due to the prospects of large supplies from South America and the persistence of ample supplies in Europe, respectively.
The FAO Dairy Price Index remained largely unchanged from its revised December value, standing 17.8% below its value from a year ago. In January, international price quotations for butter and whole milk powder increased largely due to greater demand from Asian buyers, almost offsetting the decline in the prices of skimmed milk powder and cheese.
The FAO Meat Price Index decreased for the seventh consecutive month by 1.4% compared to December, as abundant supply from the main exporting countries lowered international prices for poultry, beef and pork. In contrast, international sheepmeat prices increased due to high global demand for imports and the reduced supply of animals for slaughter in Oceania.
The FAO Sugar Price Index in January rose 0.8% from the previous month, supported by concerns about the likely impact of below-average rainfall in Brazil on sugarcane crops to be harvested from April onwards. , along with unfavorable production prospects in Thailand and India.
Record cereal production in 2023
World cereal production in 2023 is expected to reach an all-time high of 2,836 million tonnes – an increase of 1.2% compared to 2022, according to new forecasts in the latest Cereal Supply and Demand Report, also released today.
Global secondary cereal production is now set at an all-time high of 1,523 million tonnes, after an upward adjustment of 12 million tonnes this month. Most of the revision reflects new official data from Canada, mainland China, Turkey and the United States, where a combination of higher yields and larger harvested areas than previously expected has led to higher corn production estimates.
Global cereal use in 2023/24 is now forecast at 2,822 million tonnes, an increase of 8.9 million tonnes over the December forecast and exceeding the 2022/23 level by 1.2 percent, led by the use of feed expected to be greater than previously, especially in Europe. European Union, as well as in Australia and the United States of America.
Consequently, the global cereal reserves/utilization ratio for 2023/24 is forecast to be at a comfortable level of 31.1 percent, exceeding the 30.9 percent level for 2022/23.
Global cereal trade in 2023/34 is now forecast to reach 480 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8% on the previous year, led mainly by higher trade volumes forecast for secondary cereals, while global wheat trade and rice may actually contract.