Dollar opens stable morning, rise in Treasuries and fall in ore

Dollar opens stable morning, rise in Treasuries and fall in ore
Dollar opens stable morning, rise in Treasuries and fall in ore
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The quotation of dollar it began to run close to stability this Friday morning (2) after falling earlier in line with the exterior. The downward adjustment lost strength against the real and other emerging pairs, such as the Mexican peso, given the rise in Treasury interest rates and after the 2.23% drop in iron ore in China.

Investors are awaiting the driver of the day, the jobs report, payrollfrom the United States in January, which should guide bets on the start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank) this year.

A Brazilian industrial production rose 1.1% in December compared to November, in the seasonally adjusted series, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced earlier. The result came at the top of the projections of analysts interviewed by Projeções Broadcast, who expected a drop of 0.3% to an increase of 1.1% with a positive median of 0.2%. In relation to December 2022, production rose 1.0%, compared to the expected negative median of 0.3%. In this comparison, without adjustment, estimates ranged from a decline of 1.8% to an increase of 1.2%.

The Consumer Price Index (IPC), which measures inflation in the city of São Paulo, rose 0.46% in January, from 0.38% in December and 0.34% in the third four-week period of last month, practically at the ceiling of Projeções Broadcast forecasts, of +0.47%. In the 12-month period up to January, the IPC-Fipe accumulated inflation of 2.98%, below the 3.15% in 2023.

Economic projections in the USA and dollar exchange rate today

For data from the North American labor market, the expectation is that the US economy created 195 thousand jobs in January, according to the median of 27 analysts consulted by Projeções Broadcast. If confirmed, the result will represent a new slowdown, after the 216 thousand jobs created in December, under the effect of the monetary tightening conducted by the Fed to contain activity and, consequently, bring inflation back to the 2% target.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly, from 3.7% in December to 3.8% in January, according to the median analysis. The average hourly wage is expected to slow down in the monthly reading, to an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month (from an increase of 0.44% seen in December), and repeat the annual gain of 4.1% seen in December .

At 9:39 am, the dollar exchange rate cash had a downward bias of 0.01%, quoted at R$ 4.9153, compared to a minimum of R$ 4.9098 (-0.11%). O future dollar March lost 0.05%, to R$ 4.9270.

With information from Estadão Conteúdo.

The article is in Portuguese

Tags: Dollar opens stable morning rise Treasuries fall ore

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