Ibovespa falls 1.01%, detached from NY, and retreats during the week; Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR4) close the day in decline

Ibovespa falls 1.01%, detached from NY, and retreats during the week; Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR4) close the day in decline
Ibovespa falls 1.01%, detached from NY, and retreats during the week; Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR4) close the day in decline

O Ibovespa ended today’s session (2) down 1.01%, at 127,182.25 points. The daily minimum was 126,627.88 points, while the maximum was 128,878.43 points. For the week, the performance of the stock index was -1.38%. Thus, for the year, Ibovespa losses now reach 5.22%, with a drop of 0.45% in the aggregate of the first two sessions of February. The financial volume totaled R$23.7 billion in this trading session.

O Ibovespa today became detached from the positive performance of the New York Stock Exchanges.

  • Dow Jones: +0.35%, at 38,654.62 points;
  • S&P500: +1.07%, at 4,958.59 points;
  • Nasdaq: +1.74%, at 15,628.95 points.

Among the securities with the greatest weight in the index, preferred shares of Petrobras (PETR4) fell 1.18% today (2) and rose 2.80% this week, while common shares (PETR3) fell 1.44% this trading session and rose 0.91% this week. Already the Vale (VALUE3) fell 2.03% today and 4.92% for the week.

In a monthly report on the Brazilian stock market in January – a period in which the Ibovespa dropped 4.79% compared to the historical highs at the end of December -, the head of research at Guide Investimentos, Fernando Siqueira, points out that “the drop was not greater due to some names with weight high in the index, such as Petrobras, Ultrapar (UGPA3) and Banco do Brasil (BBAS3), which showed an increase in the month”.

Worsening outlook for interest rate cuts around the world

“Smaller and cyclical companies had a much greater drop than the Ibovespa. We believe that the drop reflects the worsening prospects for interest rate cuts around the world, particularly in the US (and also an unrealistic expectation of cuts implicit in prices previously)”, adds the report.

“The flow of foreign investors was negative in the month, reflecting this marginal deterioration in the scenario”, adds Siqueira, also referring to the fact that market interest rates showed a significant increase in January, “which favored value companies – such as commodity producers and banks – and put pressure on growth ones – such as health, education, e-commerce”. “The rise in interest rates favored the flight of foreign investors: after a large inflow of external resources in November and December, January was marked by redemptions at B3.”

The main release on Friday’s agenda, the January payroll in the United States contains noise and cannot be read as a strong jobs report, according to JPMorgan’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman. Still, it throws a “bucket of cold water” regarding March as a possible start of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank), adds the economist, broadcast correspondent Aline Bronzati reports from New York.

The probability of the interest rate being maintained by the Federal Reserve was reinforced for March with the round of data released this Friday in the USA – yesterday, it was at 62% and rose today to 79.5%. The indicators also affected the bets for May, with an increase in the chance that the level will also remain unchanged, even though the chance of the start of relief continues to be the most likely outcome for the meeting in the fifth month of the year – today, the possibility of an estimated cut at 71.2%, compared to 93.8% in the scenario that prevailed yesterday for May, according to data from the CME.

Capital market specialist and partner at Matriz Capital, Daniely Holanda, highlighted some of the biggest movements in the Ibovespa, including Gerdau (GGBR4), Azul (AZUL4) and Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU4) in this analysis.

The rise of Gerdau sharesfor example, occurred after the bank Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation for the shares from neutral to purchase, which also positively impacted the shares of its Holding Company (GOAU4).

The appreciation of Azul shares This happens after the bank BTG Pactual raised its recommendation to buy AZUL4 paper, believing in less competition in the domestic market due to Gol’s (GOLL4) restructuring request.

Some of the biggest falls in Ibovespa today were Cogna (COGN3), Locaweb (LWSA3) and MRV (MRVE3), which are shares in sectors more sensitive to interest rates which, in turn, have a strong impact with the payroll result announced today (2 ) and which came in far above expectations.

In the case of Cogna sharesthe drop comes after BTG Pactual downgraded its recommendation for sale on shares traded under the COGN3 ticker.

The day was also a day of decline for the shares of Magazine Luiza (MGLU3), which fell 4.37%, as well as Casas Bahia (BHIA3), with -6.01%.

Ibovespa biggest rises today

  • Blue (BLUE4): +3.62%
  • Gerdau (GGBR4): +2.38%
  • Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU4): +1.52%
  • Carrefour (CRFB3): +1.39%
  • Eztec (EZTC3): +1.24%

Biggest drops in Ibovespa today

  • Cogna (COGN3): -6.94%
  • Casas Bahia (BHIA3): -6.01%
  • PetroReconcavo (RECV3): -4.77%
  • Magazine Luiza (MGLU3): -4.37%
  • Locaweb (LWSA3): -3.96%

During the week, the main falls were the shares of Casas Bahia, which fell 17.24%, and Cogna, which fell 11.55%. The positive highlight was Grupo Soma (SOMA3), which jumped 11.22%.

Biggest highs of the week

  • Soma Group (SOMA3): +10.94%
  • Arezzo (ARZZ3): +8.44%
  • Petrobras PN (PETR4): +2.68%
  • Totvs (TOTS3): +2.59%
  • Telefônica (VIVT3): +2.36%

Biggest drops of the week

  • Casas Bahia (BHIA3): -17.24%
  • Cogna (COGN3): -11.55%
  • PetroReconcavo (RECV3): -7.85%
  • Petz (PETZ3): -7.65%
  • Prio (PRIO3): -7.09%

What moved the Ibovespa today?

As highlighted by Daniely Holanda, specialist in capital markets and partner at Matriz Capital, the Ibovespa today turned downwards, operating close to 127 thousand points, after the result of the payroll in the United States, which surprised the market.

A stock exchange today started the day waiting for news of the United States payroll results. The market consensus projected an increase of 187 thousand new non-agricultural jobs, but the result exceeded expectations, ending the month with the creation of 353 thousand new jobs, almost double what was expected.

“O payroll, released on the first Friday of each month, is an important report that provides data on the variation in the number of people employed in the country, disregarding the agricultural sector, covering around 80% of jobs in the North American economy. Due to its importance, this result attracts the attention of the capital market, as it is a strong indicator of the health of the country’s economy”, explained the expert.

The upward movement of the dollar today also reflected the payroll results, considering the more expressive numbers that were shown, around 90% higher than the market consensus.

In this sense, the spot dollar ended the day with an appreciation of 1.07%, quoted at R$4.9683, reaching the daily maximum of R$4.9763. During the week, the US currency advanced 1.17%.

“In my view, the upward movement in DIs follows the same reason as the rise in the dollar. The data brings uncertainty at the beginning of the interest rate reduction, as the market is still heated, reinforcing the possibility of interest rates being maintained by the Fed, also bringing uncertainty to our future interest rate”, concludes the expert.

Last closing of Ibovespa

O Ibovespa ended yesterday’s trading session (1st) up 0.57%, at 128,481.02 points.

With Estadão Content

The article is in Portuguese

Tags: Ibovespa falls detached retreats week Vale VALE3 Petrobras PETR4 close day decline



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