Dollar opens higher after decisions on interest rates in Brazil and the USA

Dollar opens higher after decisions on interest rates in Brazil and the USA
Dollar opens higher after decisions on interest rates in Brazil and the USA
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SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS)

The dollar opened Thursday (1st) on a high, with investors reflecting the decisions taken on “super Wednesday” by the central banks of Brazil and the United States on interest rates.

Here, the BC cut the Selic by 0.5 percentage points, to 11.25%, as was practically a consensus among the market. In the USA, there was also the decision that analysts predicted with maintaining the rate between 5.25% and 5.5%.

At 9:12 am, the US currency rose 0.57%, quoted at R$4.9664. In addition to decisions on monetary policies, the market is also awaiting a report on employment in the US.

On Wednesday (30), the Stock Exchange lost strength in the last hour of trading, but still closed up 0.28%, at 127,752.31 points. The dollar fell 0.19%, quoted at R$4.935. However, both were not impacted by the decision of the Brazilian BC, which announced the cut after the end of operations.

In Brazil, the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) decided on the fifth consecutive reduction and stated at the last meeting, last year, that members unanimously assessed that this is the appropriate cadence to maintain monetary policy by contracting the economy at a level necessary for the disinflation process.

Analysts pointed out before the meeting that a new cut was the expected measure, considering inflation indicators.

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With interest rates remaining unchanged in the US, traders were waiting for signals from the US central bank to bet on when the interest rate cut cycle could begin: whether in March or May.

The rate of the largest economy in the world is always closely watched, as, in general, there is a preference among investors for United States Treasury assets (Treasuries), the lowest risk in the world.

In a statement, the Fed gave no indication that a rate cut was imminent, saying it does not consider it “appropriate to lower the interest rate range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably in a sustainable direction.” [à meta de] two%”.

For Paulo Gala, chief economist at Banco Master, the signals pushed the start of easing to May, “specifically when the Fed says it will only cut interest rates when it has more confidence that inflation is going to 2%.”

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“In other words, he doesn’t have that confidence yet. The data on the North American economy is good, regarding retail, industrial production… The labor market data was also reasonable. I believe that the Fed does not want to risk cutting interest rates and seeing a spike in inflation.”

Alexandre Espírito Santo, chief economist at Way Investimentos, believes that the expectation of a cut in May is still “audacious” on the part of the market.

“I don’t see interest rates falling anytime soon. The Fed mentioned that the situation is uncertain and that it needs to pay attention to inflation. I believe it is showing signs that it will not fall for now, just as Chris Waller, an important member of the Fed, did last week,” he says.

After the announcement, the stock market remained bullish, until the press conference with Fed President Jerome Powell rejected the idea of ​​a cut in March.

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“I don’t think it’s likely that the (Federal Open Market) Committee will reach a level of confidence by the March meeting” to cut the key rate, “but that’s what you’ll see,” Powell said, adding that a March cut would not It is the base scenario for monetary policy makers.

The Stock Exchange, which bordered on gains of 1.60% after the announcement, lost strength in the last hour of trading and closed up 0.28%, at 127,752.31 points.

The dollar fell 0.19%, quoted at R$4.935, in a session marked by the fight between investors over the formation of the end-of-month Ptax.

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Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the BC based on spot market quotations and which serves as a reference for the settlement of futures contracts. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it to levels that are more convenient for their positions, whether they are purchased (in the direction of rising prices) or sold in dollars (in the downward direction).

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In the end, the Ptax was set by the BC at R$4,953 for sale. In January, the dollar accumulated an increase of 1.79%; the Stock Exchange, down 4.79%.

The article is in Portuguese

Tags: Dollar opens higher decisions interest rates Brazil USA

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