In Brazil, despite an exchange rate of around R$4.85 for most of the week, increases in values in Chicago and a partial improvement in premiums in the national market resulted in a specific increase in soybean prices. According to the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA), however, the reason behind this movement, as mentioned, is worrying: the imminent possibility of a crop failure. As a result, the average price in Rio Grande do Sul ended the week at R$139.96 per bag, with the main markets trading the oilseed between R$138.00 and R$140.00. In other regions of the country, prices varied between R$117.00 and R$128.00 per bag.
Although some analysts still predict a national soybean harvest exceeding 163 million tons, many others have already reduced their projections to a final volume below 160 million.
As of September 11, soybean planning in the country had reached 61% of the expected area, compared to 69% in the same period of the previous year, marking the slowest pace since 2020/21. Cuts of 1.1 million tons have already been reported in the production projection in Mato Grosso, due to delays in planting and the lack of rain in cultivated areas. Further downward adjustments are expected in the coming weeks if weather conditions are not better. This is a scenario that is repeated in most producing states, and in the south of the country the concern is related to excessive rainfall.