The lack of reaction in live pig prices in November, when there is seasonally a greater demand for protein due to the build-up of trade stocks before the end of year festivitiesindicates a trend towards stability in prices in January, according to a market analysis published by the Brazilian Association of Pig Breeders (ABCS).
Based on IBGE slaughter data and exports in the year to September, the ABCS bulletin points out a stability in the internal availability of pork compared to an increase of 11.95% for beef and 4.7% for chicken meat. This scenario, he points out, reduced the competitiveness of pigs, limiting increases in the price paid to producers.
“Considering that in December the demand for pork is the highest of the year and that it is necessary to stock up in advance to meet this demand, regardless of the market situation, the tendency when there is not a large price increase in November and December is that in January the price will remain stable”, assesses ABCS.
For October and November, Cepea price surveys evaluated by the Association indicate growing difference between pork and beef pricesrising from 45.3% in September to more than 60% in the following two months – which would signal an increase in domestic consumption.
According to the president of ABCS, Marcelo Lopes, price stability even in mid-November indicates greater caution on the final links of the marketing chaino, “that they would not be ‘risking’ acquiring more than what will actually be sold”.
“It is also an indication that the End-of-year stocks should be lower than in previous years, meaning that the price will remain at a slightly higher level throughout the month of December and perhaps without a significant decline in January 2024”, adds Lopes.