O rice reached the highest price in history in Brazil. A bag of cereal in husk exceeded R$ 113 with an appreciation of 38.5% in 12 months, according to Cepea/Esalq. The increase felt in the countryside also reflected in retail. According to the Brazilian Supermarket Association (Open) the appreciation in the year, until September, was already 10.8%. After all, why would the price of this food Is the basic staple on the Brazilian table rising? Some factors help to explain the historical moment: (1) In the 22/23 harvest, Brazil sowed the smallest area ever, with less than 1 and a half million hectares; (2) Production also fell to the lowest level in almost 20 years, with just over 10 million tons, as revealed by data from the National Supply Company; (3) Strong exports, with expectations of closing the year with shipments of around 1.7 million tons; (4) Restriction of the global supply of rice from India, one of the largest exporters in the world; (5) Difficulty in planting the current harvest, 23/24, in areas with greater production, such as the southern states of the country. Excessive rain has prevented field work from progressing and sowing is at a rate below the average for the period.
The tendency is for cereal prices to remain firm until the beginning of 2024, the period in which the harvest in Brazil begins, projects the Cogo Intelligence in Agribusiness. For the consumer, there are still transfers to be made by the industry. In the field, with the expected improvement in cereal profitability, the area in the current harvest has increased and production, if the weather contributes, should also be greater here in Brazil. In the world, there is a great demand for rice and restricted supply. Rice was the grain that rose the most in price on the global market in the last 12 months, with an increase of 30% in dollars, highlights Cogo. This is the result of the off-season in Latin America, production problems in countries like India and Malaysia and a not-so-large crop being harvested in the United States. In other words, ahead we should have months of rice costing more.
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
