The payment of the 13th salary is expected to inject around R$291 billion into the Brazilian economy, according to data from the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese). Part of this resource must reach workers by the end of November, as determined by law, that is, in the next two weeks.
For those whose accounts are in the black, that is, without debts that require immediate payment and, consequently, the use of this money, the question that remains is “what to do with the 13th salary?” This is because many people have already left savings aside and are looking for more robust returns, but still with security.
Also according to Dieese, the amount represents approximately 2.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and will be paid to approximately 87.7 million people: formal market workers, Social Security beneficiaries and retirees and pension beneficiaries of the Union and the states and municipalities. On average, each worker should receive R$3,057.
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For Bruna Allemann, economist and head of international investments at Nomos, setting up an emergency reserve is just as important as investing. Better than that, she says, is to make your emergency fund an investment. Therefore, she lists some products that she considers to be opportune given the current macroeconomic scenario. Are they:
- Treasury Direct: With just R$30 it is possible to purchase public bonds and all of this through the government’s internet platform. In other words, quick and easy. “For the emergency reserve, the choice should be the Treasury Selic”, he highlights.
- CBD: This is the Bank Deposit Certificate, that is, a security issued by the banks themselves as a way of raising resources to finance their activities. “It’s as if it were a loan from the investor to the bank, receiving remuneration for it, of course”, he highlights.
However, for people who do not have a predilection for setting up an emergency fund, before applying the 13th it is necessary to define financial objectives, according to the expert. “These objectives are what will direct your investments”, she says. Here’s how to plan:
- Short-term goals, up to 1 year: risk-free and liquid investments, such as those used for emergency reserves;
- 1 to 5 year goals: fixed income investments with a longer term, such as CDBs, LCIs and Treasury bonds older than one year;
- Goals over 5 years: shares, equity funds, multimarket funds, real estate funds and investments abroad.
Now, thinking about the current scenario of the national and global economy, the economist would choose pre-fixed fixed income securities (Brazil). “We are expecting a fall in the Selic rate. And this choice guarantees good profitability”, she highlights. According to the expert, if the interest rate is rising, it is a good idea to look at investments such as the Treasury Selic or CDBs with daily liquidity, which yield more as the interest rate rises. “But if the rate is falling and you realize that you have reached the top, then it is time to look at fixed-rate bonds that guarantee good returns for longer.”
For those interested in agribusiness, Allemann mentions Fiagro, as these are good opportunities for one of the largest sectors that drive the country’s economy, especially in times of appreciation of the dollar.
Finally, the economist highlights international fixed income securities because they guarantee a good pre-fixed interest rate on Bonds and Treasuries, for example, through their coupon payments, which can reach up to 9% in dollars. “Here, the investor takes the inflation hook and the historical interest rate in the United States”, she says.
13th Salary in variable income
The variable income operator at Manchester Investimentos, Thiago Lourenço, highlights that for those who have a more moderate or aggressive profile, it is now possible to think about putting together a share portfolio. “In this case, it must be assessed whether there is sufficient knowledge of the market or whether there is support from third parties to move assertively,” he says.
This is because, in interest rate cut cycles like the current one, allocation to shares ends up being an opportunity. He refers to the interest cuts that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) is implementing in the Brazilian economy. In November, the monetary authority provided a 0.5 pp reduction in the Selic, which is the basic interest rate, and is expected to implement another at the December meeting.
Selic is currently at 12.25% per year and should fall to 11.75% per year by the end of 2023, according to financial market projections. For those who have a more conservative profile, Lourenço states that one should look for opportunities in fixed income, and mentions the IPCA+, which is a security that has its profitability linked to the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), this means that the investor receives a fixed return plus the variation in inflation measured by the index.
As for those in debt, the expert indicates that the best investment is to eliminate any debt, mainly because if it is with a credit card, no return on investment will be able to be higher than the card’s rates.
The manager of Hike Capital, Angelo Belitardo, created three strategies for allocating the 13th, because, for him, if the investor has not planned to use the money to complement vacation or routine expenses, he can do it in the following way:
- Liquidity strategy: allocating to fixed income funds with daily liquidity above 110% of the CDI.
In this case, according to him, it is important to choose an issuer with solidity in the market, excellent track record, high dispersion in the asset portfolio, and consistency of returns above its reference benchmark, even in scenarios of economic stress.
- Long-term strategies: investing in dispersed FIC FIDCs mixing senior and subordinated shares.
In this modality, with the fall in interest rates, it is believed that investment funds aimed at the dispersed private credit market, mixing senior and subordinated shares of Credit Rights Investment Funds (FIDCs) are among the best options in the house.
“We highlight the need to choose solid and recognized institutions in the market. The only disadvantage of these funds is their low liquidity, being long-term strategies, with accumulated annual profitability exceeding 130% of the CDI”, he highlights, adding that since the beginning, surpassing 160% of their benchmarks, with volatility close to 0%. “The fall in the CDI could boost the credit market, reducing the cost of raising these funds and increasing the carry”, she points out.
- Long term strategy: investing in variable income.
In this case, Belitardo recommends funds that invest in shares of companies classified as having high growth potential, such as Blue Chips, whose business models are consistent and not vulnerable to economic crises caused by interest rates, inflation, exchange rates and political decisions.
It turns out that the companies targeted by the fund’s investment have a high profit margin, exposure to different markets and countries, as well as a healthy debt structure, being able to finance the activity with their own resources and, finally, a high asymmetry of value between valuation of the company and the value of its shares traded on the stock exchange.