The dollar closed sharply lower against its peers this Tuesday, with investors revising their bets on the trajectory of American interest rates in light of lower-than-expected inflation data in the United States in October. The United States CPI remained stable in October compared to September, compared to a consensus of an increase of 0.1%.
The core rose 0.2%, also below expectations (0.3%). In CME monitoring, the bet on the Fed maintaining interest rates in December reached 100%, against 85.5% yesterday. Furthermore, the expectation that interest rates will begin to fall in May 2024 has risen from 50%, compared to 30.6% yesterday.
In the domestic scenario, the drop was a little less pronounced than abroad, with investors showing some caution before the holidays and monitoring discussions about the 2024 fiscal target. After meeting with Lula, Haddad and Esher Dweck, Simone Tebet said that nothing has been decided on the topic so far.
The theme of the meeting revolved mainly around revenue priorities for next year, which still depend on Congressional approval, such as projects dealing with ICMS subsidies, JCP, sports betting and the conclusion of the tax reform in the Chamber.
The spot dollar closed down 0.93%, at R$4.8620. At the day’s low, it dropped to R$4.8486 (-1.21%), the lowest intraday value since September 20th (R$4.8434). At its maximum, it was R$4.9074 (-0.01%). At 5:05 pm, the future dollar for December fell 0.93%, to R$4.8750.
Outside, the DXY index fell 1.48%, to 104,072 points. The euro gained 1.71% to US$1.0883. And the pound advanced 1.82%, to US$ 1.2499.