Soybean prices fell on the Chicago Stock Exchange this Thursday (9/11) with an indication that supply will be greater than initially expected for the United States. Oilseed lots for January closed down 1.63%, at US$ 13.6575 per bushel.
In its most recent supply and demand report, released today, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased estimates for soybean production in the country. The volume of 112.39 million tons was above market estimates.
“With the increase in US 2023/24 production, even if small, investors took advantage of the session to take profits, as prices were moving upwards driven by new highs in soybean meal”says Daniele Siqueira, analyst at AgRural.
In their projections, the USDA did not make adjustments for the Brazilian harvest in the 2023/24 season, although problems with planting crops persist. This scenario leaves open the possibility for revisions in national production, according to the analyst.
“By methodology, the USDA does not usually change Brazil’s projections in November. But, if the situation of irregular rains and heat continues, especially in Mato Grosso, I believe that the department will be able to cut our harvest estimate in the December report”points out Daniele.
In this month’s release, the American agency maintained its production estimate for Brazil at 163 million tons.
Finally, the analyst comments that investors’ attention should shift from USDA harvest estimates to supply and demand factors in the US and South America.
“The market’s focus now, in addition to macroeconomic and financial influences, is the pace of demand for US soybeans. The demand for American bran (which has strong exports to cover the vacuum left by Argentina, and which Brazil is unable to cover alone) and, of course, the development of the South American harvest”, he concludes