In an interview with Mercado & Companhia, the consultant from DATE, Luc Viandiscussed the current scenario of the livestock market, addressing the significant fluctuation in arroba prices in the first nine months of the year.
Vian explained that there was a significant reduction in arroba prices, around 30%, in the first nine months of 2023, followed by a recovery that has already reached around 240 reais. He attributed this fluctuation to great supply pressure, driven by depressed breeding activity and the culling of sows.
The consultant highlighted that the sector experienced the largest slaughter in history in the months of August and September, with 8.85 million heads sold, representing an increase of 11.15% compared to the same period of the previous year. Vian highlighted that this scenario has already stabilized, and the expectation is for greater stability in arroba prices from now on.
Asked about the factors that could impact future prices, Vian mentioned a seasonal shortage that occurs in November, the start of the breeding season and the preparation of rural properties for next year. He emphasized that, although the domestic market has absorbed the factors that caused the reduction in prices, a strong domestic demand, combined with favorable climatic factors, can boost the retention of animals on properties.
Regarding the issue of internal consumption power, Vian observed that beef is competitive at the best levels in the last five years compared to chicken meat, which increases internal demand. He highlighted that the arrival of the end of the year, with the 13th salary and more accommodating inflation, contributes to greater purchasing power for the Brazilian population.
When addressing producer profitability, Vian recognized that, although arroba prices are at a higher level, profitability may be compromised. He highlighted that factors such as Chinese purchases and currency fluctuations play a crucial role in determining prices.
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