The release of a new round of the IPEC poll on Monday night, 19, could bring signs about the possibility of the presidential election being closed in the first round, evaluate political scientists consulted by the Estadão. Two weeks before the election, the expectation is that the next polls will reveal whether the campaign for the “useful vote” has any effect on voters, and how this can affect candidacies from outside the polarization led by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Marco Antônio Carvalho Teixeira, a professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), states that there is a strong tendency towards stability in the electoral scenario in the final stretch of campaigns, with room for a “timid” growth of the PT candidate, within the margin of error, and stagnation — or even some decline — for Jair Bolsonaro.
“It seems that Bolsonaro’s campaign magic hat has run out. For measures such as emergency aid and fuel price reduction, the bill has already passed. (…) The tendency is to see Lula continuing very close to a number who can decide in the first round or guaranteeing a good margin for the second round. And Bolsonaro hitting the ceiling of 32%, 34%, 35%”, he says.
Also according to Teixeira, voters should be aware of a decrease in Ciro Gomes (PDT) or, at least, an indication that the former governor has reached the ceiling of his performance. “It seems that it doesn’t go any further than this 8% or 9% that the institutes have detected,” he says. The specialist also notes a rapid loss of breath from Simone Tebet (MDB), which, according to him, shows having parked at 5% or 6%.
Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) are the main ones affected by the ‘useful vote’ campaign, defended mainly by PT members. Photo: Dida Sampaio/Estadão and Adriano Machado/Reuters
The performance of the PDT and MDB candidates is directly related to the appeal of the “useful vote”, made mainly by the Lula campaign. Voters of these presidential candidates face pressure to give up their first choice vote and help elect the PT candidate, who leads the polls, in the first round. “Two weeks before the elections, it is expected that this speech of the useful vote will begin to reveal its potential as of today”, says Teixeira.
Political scientist Carolina Botelho, from the Laboratory of Electoral Studies, Political Communication and Public Opinion at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), says that the trend is for today’s poll to maintain the results of the latest Ipec and Datafolha polls. She also projects the possibility of a decline in the candidacies of Ciro and Simone.
According to Carolina, the survey may give signals about the migration of undecided people to former President Lula, as a possible consequence of the campaign for a useful vote. “Perhaps September 7 has isolated the president’s supporters more from the rest of the electorate, and those who were still undecided, or wanting to choose Tebet and Ciro, are choosing to settle the bill on October 2,” she says.
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