Main polls indicate 2nd round between Lula and Bolsonaro

If the presidential elections were today, Brazilians would need to go back to the polls in a 2nd round to choose between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The data are from a survey of the Power 360 with the top 8 polls released this week (28.Aug to 3.Sep.2022).

With the exception of Ipec, all surveys show Lula numerically behind the sum of his other opponents. In 4 studies, there is a technical tie between PT and the percentage of opponents.

In these cases, there is a chance that Lula will settle the election in the 1st round, but only if the candidate oscillates upwards, and the other names, downwards. To win in the 1st round, it is necessary to receive 50% plus 1 of the valid votes (blanks and nulls are not considered in this calculation).

For the survey, all surveys with known methodologies were considered and from which it was possible to verify the origin of the information released from August 28 to September 2. Therefore, the Power 360 compiled the results of PowerDate (BR-06922/2022), Datafolha (BR-00433/2022), XP/Ipespe (BR-0434720/2022), Paraná Pesquisas (BR-03492/2022), Genial/Quaest (BR-00585/2022), CNT /MDA (BR-00950/2022), Ipec (BR-01979/2022) and BTG/FSB (BR-08934/2022). Click on the texts in blue to read the full text. The studies are registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).

The percentage of voting intentions for Lula ranges from 41.3% to 45% in these polls, while that of Bolsonaro ranges from 32% to 37.1%.

Read the methodologies and results in the 1st shift scenarios:

Datasheet

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 45%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 32%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 9%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 5%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 1%;
  • Felipe d’Avila (New): 1%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 1%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0%;
  • Eymael (DC): 0%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0%;
  • blank/null/none: 4%;
  • don’t know: 2%.

The survey surveyed 5,734 voters in 285 cities and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points at a 95% confidence interval. It is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-00433/2022, it cost R$ 473,780.00 and was paid by Grupo Folha and Globo Comunicação.

PowerDate

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 44%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 36%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 8%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 4%;
  • Eymael (DC): 1%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 0%;
  • Felipe D’avila (New): 0%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0%;
  • blank/null: 3%;
  • don’t know: 2%.

Search PowerDate heard 3,500 voters from August 28 to 30, 2022 in 308 municipalities in the 27 units of the federation. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The survey was carried out with its own resources and is registered with the TSE under number BR-06922/2022.

XP/Ipespe

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 43%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 35%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 9%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 5%;
  • Felipe D’avila (New): 1%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 0%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0%;
  • white/null/none/would not vote: 4%;
  • don’t know/didn’t answer: 2%.

The survey surveyed 2,000 people from August 26 to 29, 2022. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The registration of the research in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) is BR-0434720/2022. The research was contracted by XP Investimentos for R$ 84,000.00.

Paraná Research

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 41.3%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 37.1%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 7.7%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 2.4%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 0.6%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0.3%;
  • Felipe D’avila (New): 0.2%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0.2%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0.1%;
  • Eymael (DC): 0.1%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0.1%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0%;
  • blank/null/none: 5.9%;
  • don’t know: 4%.

The survey surveyed 2,020 voters from August 26 to 30, 2022. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The registration with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) is BR-03492/2022. The survey cost BRL 50,000.00. It was paid from its own resources.

Great/Quaest

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 44%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 32%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 8%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 3%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 1%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 1%;
  • Eymael (DC): 0%;
  • Felipe D’avila (New): 0%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0%;
  • blank/null/will not vote: 5%;
  • undecided: 6%.

The poll heard 2,000 voters from August 25 to 28, 2022 and is registered with the TSE under number BR-00585/2022. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. It cost R$ 139,005.86 and was paid by Banco Genial.

CNT/MDA

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 42.3%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 34.1%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 7.3%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 2.1%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 0.4%;
  • Felipe D’avila (New): 0.3%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0.2%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0.1%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0.1%;
  • Eymael (DC): 0%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0%;
  • blank/null: 5%;
  • undecided: 7.8%.

The survey carried out 2,002 interviews from August 25 to 28, 2022. It is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-00950/2022. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. It cost R$ 197,400.00 and was paid by the CNT.

ipec

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 44%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 32%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 7%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 3%;
  • Felipe D’avila (New): 1%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 0%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0%;
  • Eymael (DC): 0%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0%;
  • blank/null: 7%;
  • don’t know/didn’t answer: 6%.

The survey interviewed 2,000 voters from August 26 to 28, 2022 in 128 municipalities in all 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. It is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-01979/2022. It cost BRL 231,156.29 and was paid by TV Globo.

BTG/FSB

Read the results:

  • Lula (PT): 43%;
  • Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 36%;
  • Ciro Gomes (PDT): 9%;
  • Simone Tebet (MDB): 4%;
  • Vera Lucia (PSTU): 1%;
  • Pablo Marcal (Pros): 1%;
  • Felipe D’avila (New): 0%;
  • Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 0%;
  • Eymael (DC): 0%;
  • Sofia Manzano (PCB): 0%;
  • Leonardo Pericles (UP): 0%;
  • Roberto Jefferson (PTB): 0%;
  • none: 4%;
  • blank/null: 0%;
  • don’t know/didn’t answer: 3%.

The survey conducted 2,000 interviews from August 26 to 28, 2022. It is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-08934/2022. The margin of error is 2 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. It cost R$ 128,957.83 and was paid by the BTG Pactual bank.


The article is in Portuguese

Tags: Main polls #2nd Lula Bolsonaro

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