Almost a month before the elections, a survey carried out by the Futura Intelligence Institute, contracted by Banco Modal, shows President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), candidate for reelection, and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in a technical tie in the dispute. by the Planalto Palace.
According to the survey, carried out between August 24th and 25th (before, therefore, the beginning of the radio and television campaigns), Bolsonaro has 40.1% of voting intentions in a stimulated scenario. Lula appears with 36.9%.
As the estimated margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, the two candidates would be technically tied, as Bolsonaro’s voting intentions would be between 42.3% and 37.9%, and Lula’s between 34.7% and 39.1%.
The results of this poll diverge significantly from what Ipec, Ipespe, Quaest, MDA and Datafolha indicate, which today show Lula isolated in the leadership of the dispute – although, in some cases, with a smaller advantage over Bolsonaro than a few weeks ago.
According to the Modal/Futura poll, behind the pair are former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 10.1%, and senator Simone Tebet (MDB), with 2.2%.
Candidates Vera Lúcia (PSTU), Felipe D’Avila (Novo) and Pablo Marçal (Pros) – the latter is still trying to keep his candidacy in court – have 0.4% each.
Roberto Jefferson (PTB) appears with 0.2%, followed by Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Leonardo Péricles (UP), both with 0.1%. The survey recorded 4.6% of voters who declared a blank or null vote, the same percentage of those who were undecided.
Futura Inteligência interviewed 2,000 voters in all regions of the country using the CATI technique (computer-assisted telephone interview). The maximum margin of error is 2.2 percentage points up or down, considering a confidence level of 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-07568/2022.
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