The rise in inflation in recent months made the government raise the forecast for the minimum wage next year. The draft Budget Law of 2023, sent this Wednesday, 31, to Congress, provides for a minimum of BRL 1,302, BRL 8 higher than the amount of BRL 1,294 approved in the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO).
This will be the fourth year in a row without real adjustment. The Constitution determines the maintenance of the purchasing power of the minimum wage. Traditionally, the economic team uses the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) for the current year to correct the minimum wage for the following Budget.
With the rise in basic items, such as food and fuel, the forecast for the INPC in 2022 jumped from 4.25% at the beginning of the year to 7.41%. The value of the minimum wage may be even higher if inflation exceeds the forecast until the end of the year.
GDP and inflation
The Budget project had few changes in relation to the economic growth estimates for the next year compared to the LDO parameters. The GDP growth projection was maintained at 2.5% for 2023. The forecast for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), used as the official inflation index, changed from 3.25% to 4.5% for the next year.
Other parameters were revised. The Budget proposal provides that the Selic Rate (basic interest rates in the economy) will end 2023 at 12.49% per year, against a projection of 9.99% per year in the LDO. The forecast for the average dollar dropped from R$5.35 to R$5.12.
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