The projected trend in prices in the food group foresees an increase of 0.5% in May and declines of 0.2% and 0.4% in June and July. In 2023, in these same months, the variation in food prices was zero, in May, with decreases of 1.1% and 0.72%, in June and July.
Higher food inflation
Even with the dissipation of the effects of the supply shock in the South, food prices would no longer repeat, in 2024, the falls observed last year. In Romão’s projections, the increase this year would already be 3.9%. After the climate catastrophe in Rio Grande do Sul, its forecasts for inflation in the food group rose to 4.5% in 2024.
But, as the trend of other price groups is towards a reflux — such as fuel, in the Transport group, and electricity, in the Housing group —, Romão maintained the full inflation forecast, this year, at 3.7%.
In the case of April’s inflation, the increase reflected annual increases in medicine prices, and the expected resumption of increases in food prices, after a period of deflation. High fuel prices also made their contribution. In the year, the IPCA accumulates an increase of 1.8% and 3.69%, in 12 months, decreasing in relation to the 3.93% registered in March.
Trend is benign
The trend for monthly variation in the IPCA until the end of the year is benign. Updated forecasts indicate increases of around just 0.2% each month, with the exception of December, with an estimated increase of 0.4%.
