The effect of the first installment of Auxílio Brasil was not favorable to President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), according to the results of polls on voting intentions. However, allies of the head of the federal executive still show hope in relation to the program. In their assessment, it is necessary to wait for the payment of the second installment to have a definitive diagnosis on the subject.
Auxílio Brasil has become the biggest bet of the political wing of the ruler to try to reverse the rejection of Bolsonaro by the poorest. Initially, the economic area wanted the payment to be R$ 200, but the Minister of the Civil House, Ciro Nogueira (PP), convinced the representative to pay R$ 400 per person every month.
But voters who receive up to two minimum wages continued to support former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who represents 51% of the people who will vote in October. Because of this, the Palácio do Planalto decided to increase the value from R$ 400 to R$ 600.
The first installment has already been paid and there was a lot of expectation for Bolsonaro to grow among the poorest, touching the PT. However, such work did not have any effect and the former president still has an advantage.
Political scientists point out that Auxílio Brasil will not change the scenario, because the beneficiaries understand that the government’s maneuver was only electoral. But the Planalto Palace has another vision.
The Bolsonarista team wants to wait for the payment of the second installment. In the opinion of the political wing of the ruling base, many voters may not have realized the change that the new value has made in their lives.
In addition, the campaign will reinforce the action taken by the government in electoral advertisements. With this measure, the bet is that Bolsonaro manages to finish the first round very close to Lula and arrive very strong for the second.
However, the opposition has already guaranteed that it will react and will also highlight, at election time, that the payment of R$ 600 was not included in the government’s 2023 budget. The idea is to treat the president like a liar.
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