54% would not vote for those who do not believe in God, says PoderData

In Brazil, 54% of voters would not vote for a candidate who does not believe in God. Another 37% say yes, they would vote for those who do not believe in God.

The information is from research PowerDate held from August 28 to 30, 2022. This is the first time that the polling company has asked respondents if they would vote for those who do not believe in God. The debate over religion has dominated part of the discussions in the presidential succession.

The rates recorded among the general population are practically the same as for the Catholic electorate, in which 38% would vote and 54% would not vote for those who do not believe. Evangelicals are more resistant to this candidate profile: 65% deny the vote.

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O PowerDate asks respondents each round about which religion they most identify with. In this survey, 49% declared themselves to be Catholics and 28%, Evangelicals.

The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power360 Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected from August 28 to 30, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 308 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-06922/2022.

To reach 3,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees are found who faithfully represent the population as a whole. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.

The survey also shows a strong correlation between the possibility of and the intention to vote in the 1st round. If Brazil were divided into these 2 groups, the public that would vote for a candidate who does not believe in God would elect former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the 1st round, with 64%. The other side would re-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with 55%.

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Lula has 44% compared to 36% for Bolsonaro in the 1st round among the general populationaccording to PowerDate

The answer also varies according to the demographic range of respondents – age, income, sex, education and region. People with lower family incomes tend to be more resistant to electing a candidate who does not believe in God.

WHY DOES IT MATTER

Because Brazil is, in fact, a mostly Christian country. The religiosity of the electorate has relevant political weight.

The question “Would you vote for a candidate who doesn’t believe in God?” clearly shows that the majority of the electorate (54%) only considers choosing candidates who say or show they believe in God.

Lula and Bolsonaro call themselves Catholics. At first they would not have to deal with this issue, which would not concern them. Even so, there are 2 radically different scenarios when the answers to this question are crossed with the voting intentions in the 1st round.

Religion will be one of the key points of the election. The result may come from this intersection – Bolsonaro’s ability to win over the most “secular” voter; or from Lula to reach the most fervent.

POWERDATA

The content of PowerDate can be read on social networks, where infographics and news are shared. Follow the profiles of the research division of the Power 360 at the twitteron Facebook, Instagram and LinkedIn.

DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS

This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what is the real trend of this moment

It is important to say that all polls are right, each within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.

In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. The telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).

It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.

In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.

In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.

RESEARCH AGGREGATOR

O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.

The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.

The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, Editor-in-Chief of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.

METHODOLOGY

The search PowerDate was carried out from August 28 to 30, 2022. 3,500 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 308 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.

For readability, search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of cross variables may appear due to non-response occurrences. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power360 Journalism. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-06922/2022.


The article is in Portuguese

Tags: vote God PoderData

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