Research in MG was not barred to give Bolsonaro an advantage

New model of electronic voting machine that will be used in the 2022 elections is displayed at the Regional Electoral Court of Minas Gerais, on August 5, 2022 (Photo: Douglas Magno / AFP)
  • After TSE suspended research in MG that showed Bolsonaro’s advantage in the second round, users question the decision

  • According to publications, the decision would have been motivated by the former president’s advantage

  • However, the decision took into account inconsistencies in the survey methodology

Presidential supporters and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PL) question on social media the decision of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) to suspend a survey by ModalMais/Futura. The survey pointed out an advantage of the president in relation to the candidate and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (EN) in the second round. Minister Raul Araújo ordered the suspension of the research last Wednesday (31).

The decision, however, took into account inconsistencies in the survey methodology. The registration had been made for the positions of Governor and Senator in Minas Gerais, however, there were references to São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in the questionnaire applied.

Screenshot of a publication questions the TSE's decision to suspend electoral research in MG that showed Bolsonaro's advantage in the second round (Photo: Twitter / Reproduction)

Screenshot of a publication questions the TSE’s decision to suspend electoral research in MG that showed Bolsonaro’s advantage in the second round (Photo: Twitter / Reproduction)

The research had been registered in the TSE system under the number MG-09198/2022. On the platform, it is possible to see that the survey should be directed to the positions of governor and senator in Minas Gerais.

However, in quiz attached by the company, there are references to other states and positions.

At the beginning of the document, the research is described as “a survey of political affairs in São Paulo”. Throughout the questions there are no questions about São Paulo or Minas Gerais. There are, in fact, questions about the intention to vote for the Senate and the Rio de Janeiro Government, as well as for the President of the Republic.

Reports on Minister Raul Araújo’s decision (1, two) explain that the magistrate points to inconsistency and non-compliance with the registration as reasons for suspending the research.

Keep reading

Election polls, how do I know which ones I can trust?

In the midst of this diversity of existing surveys in Brazil, many voters do not know which results to believe.

On the first day of the year it became mandatory (read the resolution by clicking here) the registration with the Electoral Justice of any public survey related to the elections for president and governor. However, if a survey is registered, it does not necessarily mean that it will be reliable, because there is no type of prior inspection on the methodology of these surveys.

Currently, the reliability of research is guaranteed in Brazil through transparency. Some of the information that must be registered with the Electoral Court, making the surveys subject to contestation, should any irregularity be found later:

  • Contractor’s name

  • Amount charged for the survey

  • Origin of invested resources

  • Methodology

  • realization period

  • Data collection inspection system

  • Type of questionnaire applied

To identify the attributes that most deserve attention in election polls, the Yahoo! Notícias talked to some experts on the subject and separated a list with the most important points, check here.

See the latest presidential polls:

The article is in Portuguese


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