SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.2% in the second quarter of this year compared to the first, a better-than-expected result, driven by the recovery in the service sector and increased household consumption. and investments, according to data released this Thursday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
See comments from financial market professionals:
ANDRES ABADIA, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR LATIN AMERICA AT PANTHEON MACROECONOMICS
“The full reopening of the economy, the boost in fiscal support to households, the recovery in the labor market and benign conditions for Brazil’s main exports supported the solid recovery in the last quarter. These factors fully offset the drag from high inflation and tighter financials. Short-term prospects are solid. Confidence remains resilient, inflation is falling rapidly thanks to recent government measures, and the labor market remains robust. Growth momentum is likely to slow sequentially due to the lagged effect of the inflation and interest rate hikes, but should allow real GDP to grow by around 2.3% in 2022 as a whole. The balance of risks for 2023 is on the negative side, mainly due to the political scene and the deterioration of the fiscal framework , which can keep interest rates high for longer.”
WILLIAM JACKSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR EMERGING MARKETS AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“The stronger-than-expected 1.2% increase in Brazilian GDP in the second quarter led us to revise our GDP growth forecast in 2022 to 2.5%, above consensus (from 2.0% before). And the likelihood of a final rate hike of 25 basis points (to 14.00%) in the current tightening cycle has increased. But the economy is likely to slow down in the second half of the year and growth in 2023 is likely to average slow rate of 0.8%.”
LAIZ CARVALHO, ECONOMIST FOR BRAZIL AT BNP PARIBAS
“The breakdown of GDP (was) very positive. I think the main highlight on the supply side is the service sector… and, looking at the service sector, especially the transport part, the communication part and also the When we look at it from the point of view of demand, this number is also very positive. During the second quarter of this year, we had transfers of income to the larger population… and, speaking of perspectives for the third quarter, we will have the largest Auxílio Brasil, of 600 reais, and also the ‘vouchers’ for truck drivers , taxi drivers and (aid) gas. The perspective is that these cash transfers will also help the GDP of the third quarter and that the GDP of the third quarter will be very positive.”
ALBERTO RAMOS, DIRECTOR OF MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH FOR LATIN AMERICA AT GOLDMAN SACHS
“We are updating our 2022 real GDP growth forecast to 2.9% (from 2.2%). In 2023, we expect the economy to grow by just under 1%. The economy performed surprisingly well during the first quarter. , despite the significant tightening of financial conditions and the acceleration of inflation. Services activity was particularly robust during, especially among the segments most impacted by the pandemic. However, in the future, high inflation, the lagged impact of the recent monetary tightening and financial crisis, increasingly demanding credit conditions, high household indebtedness, continued slowdown in the global economy (and potential smoothing in commodity prices and terms of trade) and post-election political uncertainty are likely to add increasing obstacles to economic activity. .
LUCAS MAYNARD, ECONOMIST OF SANTANDER
“The result implies a statistical carry of 2.6% for 2022, consolidating a strong GDP performance in the first half and bringing significant upside risks to our current projection of 1.9% GDP growth this year. On the supply side , generalized growth, as expected. Services continued to strengthen… boosted by the consolidation of the process of reopening the economy combined with the expansion of the real wage bill. On the demand side, domestic absorption marked a strong reading, partially offset by the external sector . We calculate output gap closing, hovering at approximately +0.5% and reaching a positive reading for the first time since 2014.”
GUSTAVO CRUZ, ECONOMIST OF RB INVESTIMENTOS
“I believe that this second quarter GDP will cause upward revisions (in the estimates for 2022) in the Focus bulletin. We should walk to see more houses putting (forecast for GDP growth) close to 2.5%. It made a lot of sense that the services part was the great ‘driver’ of growth… I think that everything that is face-to-face, which was very depressed in 2020, in 2021 still resumed without a large number of people present in the places. Now, in 2022, really, with people vaccinated, with a booster dose, now people feel more confident. The feeling we have is that maybe in the third quarter (the activity) it won’t slow down so much. The impact of much cheaper fuels will be a relevant factor to provoke revisions (upwards) in the activity, this will open space for more expenses.”
(By Luana Maria Benedito)