The polls of voting intentions for governor released this Tuesday (30) by the Ipec institute in the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais brought good and bad news to President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), candidate for reelection.
This is because, on the one hand, Bolsonar candidates in the three states lead the race or have improved in relation to the latest polls. On the other hand, however, they show that Bolsonaro has not benefited from this, the reelection candidate is behind Lula (PT) in the three states.
According to research published by Ipec (click on the state name to read more details):
- São Paulo: Fernando Haddad (PT) leads with 32% followed by Tarcísio Freitas (Republicans), who appears in second, with 17%;
- Rio de Janeiro: Cláudio Castro (PL) leads with 26% followed by Marcelo Freixo (PSB), who appears in second, with 19%;
- Minas Gerais: Romeu Zema (Novo) leads with 44% followed by Alexandre Kalil (PSD), who appears in second, with 24%.
In São Paulo, for example, where PT Fernando Haddad leads, Bolsonarista Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas isolated himself in second position and opened an advantage to toucan Rodrigo Garcia, from 17% to 10%.
The presidential cut in the state, however, shows Bolsonaro stable behind Lula. While the former president dropped from 43% to 40%, Bolsonaro remained at the same 31%, when the reelection committee’s expectation was for growth. Lula wins in the state by nine points.
In Rio, the governor and Bolsonarista Cláudio Castro increased his advantage over Marcelo Freixo, 26% against 19%.
But Bolsonaro, frustrating his team’s predictions, did not surpass Lula and fluctuated negatively from 37% to 36%. The PT fell from 41% to 39%. The two are tied, but with Lula numerically ahead.
In Minas, President Bolsonaro has the biggest disadvantage in the Southeast. Governor Romeu Zema remains the favorite to win in the first round, now with 44% of voting intentions, well ahead of Alexandre Kalil, who has Lula’s support and has 24%. Zema avoided allying himself with Bolsonaro, but he is close to him and the Planalto Palace expects his support in the second round.
In the presidential cut, Lula has the biggest difference between the three states in relation to Bolsonaro. The former president earns 45% to 30% in Minas, a difference of 15 percentage points. Lula grew from 42% to 45% between the last poll and the one released this week, while Bolsonaro went from 29% to 30%.
Campaign committee evaluation
Bolsonaro’s reelection committee had defined the Southeast as a priority to grow in polls. He concentrated his campaign actions in São Paulo, Rio and Minas in the first weeks of the official start of the election. But, so far, this has not generated positive results for the President of the Republic.
Bolsonaro’s team believes, however, that the improvement of Bolsonar candidates in the three states should have a positive impact on the president in the next polls. In São Paulo, Tarcísio Freitas is a competitive candidate to reach the second round, while in Rio Cláudio Freixo leads the contest. The biggest problem remains in Minas, where the candidate supported by Bolsonaro, Senator Carlos Vianna, is a distant third.