Intense mass of cold air brings potential for cold weather in central-northern Brazil. What do you expect for the North and Northeast?

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Pressure, precipitation and cloudiness forecasts on April 13th show a deep cyclone in the South Atlantic and an intense cold front advancing across Brazil.
Matheus Manente

Matheus Manente 02/04/2024 06:18 5 min

A first really intense cold front of autumnwhich will cause temperatures to drop across central-south Brazil, will occur in the second week of April. Between April 8th and 10th, pressure will begin to deepen south of Rio Grande do Sul, causing severe storms.

This low pressure will continue to deepen and will create a cyclone that could hit Brazil severely between the 10th and 14th of April. The system will form a very intense cold front that will push a cold air mass into the country. This mass may end up advancing so much that it will be able to cause an episode of cold.

Chills happen when a cold front advances to the northern region of the country, causing unusual drops in temperature in this region and minimum temperatures that can fall below 18°C.

Around April 12th, Temperature drops will be felt in regions that are rarely hit by cold air masseswhich signals the possibility of the first cold weather of autumn.

Temperatures drop in the Northeast, but the situation in the North remains uncertain

The forecast model rounds are still quite unstable for the period we are analyzing. Weather forecasts for periods more than a week in advance have lower accuracy, and the dates of formation of the cyclone and cold front may vary more or lessas well as its intensity.

Precipitation anomaly forecast for the period from April 15th to 22nd
Precipitation anomaly forecast for the period from April 15th to 22nd suggests that the system may advance to low latitudes, close to the North and Northeast.

In general, the answer that is consistent is that the front will reach low latitudes, close to the North and Northeast, and the cold air mass will reach the regions South, Southeast It is Midwest. Many rounds are also indicating that the cold air mass may surpass the Southeast and reach the Northeast.

However, models have varied response regarding temperature drops in the region North. While some rounds show that the system will advance beyond the Midwest region, others indicate that they do not.

Temperature anomaly forecast for the period from April 15th to 22nd.
Temperature anomaly forecast for the period from April 15th to 22nd shows that the drop in temperatures will be felt even in the Northeast (blue colors).

This situation is reflected in the forecast of temperature anomaly for the week between April 15th and 22nd. The forecast indicates that, consistently, there will be a drop in temperatures in the Northeast during this week, but the same does not happen in the Northwhere temperatures remain above average.

This may indicate two situations: Or the mass of cold air does not reach the Northor she passes very brieflycausing temperatures to drop for a short period that is not well reflected in the weekly anomaly.

Intense mass of cold air leaves the South Region on the lookout for more widespread frosts in 2024 to date

Intense mass of cold air leaves the South Region on the lookout for more widespread frosts in 2024 to date

With this, we can arrive at two distinct conclusions:

  • At the North Eastthere is a high probability that the cold air mass and high cloud cover will contribute to a reduction in temperatures around April 15th.
  • At the Northhowever, the answers are still very inconsistent and therefore there are lower probability drop in temperatures in this same period.

Therefore, the occurrence of cold weather in the North region is still uncertain and the evolution of forecasts should be monitored over the next few days. Therefore, be sure to keep up with updates here on the Meteored website | Tempo.com.

The article is in Portuguese

Brazil

Tags: Intense mass cold air brings potential cold weather centralnorthern Brazil expect North Northeast

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