Positive biennial year for the crop contributes to increased production, but the result still depends on weather conditions.
The estimated production for the Brazilian coffee harvest in 2024 is 58.08 million bags of processed beans, 5.5% above the 2023 harvest, confirming expectations for the year of a positive biennial of the coffee crop. In the state of Minas Gerais, the outlook is more cautious, with a predicted increase of just 0.6% in production, which is expected to reach 29.18 million bags. The numbers are from the 1st Coffee Harvest Survey of the year, released by the National Supply Company (Conab), on January 18th.
According to agronomist Willem de Araújo, state coordinator of Emater-MG, climatic factors have harmed the performance of coffee growing in the largest producing state in Brazil in recent years. “There was a lack of rain in the producing regions during the flowering season last year. And crops are still recovering from the 2021 frost. Due to these factors, production in 2024 will be lower than expected, frustrating a larger harvest in Minas Gerais”, explains the specialist from the state technical assistance and rural extension company.
Coffee growing in Minas Gerais is expected to feel the effects of the strong heat waves recorded in October and November last year in 2024. “This period of intense heat coincided with the flowering and flower setting phase, and with the beginning of the formation of fruits (chumbinhos). The weather phenomenon caused low flower set, fruit and even leaves falling”, reports Willem de Araújo. But the coordinator of Emater-MG emphasizes that only from this month of February will it be possible to more accurately assess the impacts of the bad weather in recent months on the state’s crops.
According to Conab’s most recent harvest estimate bulletin, in negative biennial cycles, starting in 2023, producers tend to carry out more intense cultural treatments on crops. And there have been productivity gains, with technological improvements in the national coffee sector.
However, in Minas Gerais, the scenario is still not as favorable as in other producing states, as the Emater-MG specialist explains: “It’s because in 2023 the scenario was very bad. In addition to the intense heat waves during flowering time, the price of fertilizers was very high, which harmed investments in maintaining coffee plantations.”
Another factor of concern for coffee growers in Minas Gerais is the rainy season at the beginning of the year. With intense and constant rainfall, the risk of spreading fungal diseases increases. “With persistent rain, there is an increase in humidity and, as it is summer, with higher temperatures, this favors the occurrence of diseases such as rust, which causes plants to defoliate. Furthermore, rain also delays cultural practices such as fertilization, which can lead to an increase in fruit and leaf fall, during the period when the plant has the greatest demand for nutrients”, details Willem de Araújo.
The state coordinator of Emater-MG warns that constant monitoring of pests and diseases is one of the strategies to minimize the possible effects of adverse weather conditions, as well as carrying out foliar analyzes to check the levels of macro and micronutrients in plants, and, consequently, guide supplementation to ensure crop health.
The 1st Conab Coffee Harvest Survey shows that there is an expectation of 15.4% growth in coffee production in Espírito Santo, which is expected to reach 15.01 million bags in 2024. Cultivation in that state is predominantly conilon coffee , which has an estimated harvest of 11.06 million bags, which if confirmed will represent an increase of 9% compared to 2023. Arabica coffee should present a production of 3.95 million bags in Espírito Santo (38.2% above of the volume harvested in the last harvest).
In São Paulo, production of 5.40 million bags of the Arabica species is expected (growth of 7.4% compared to the 2023 result). Still according to the estimate released by Conab, the harvest in Bahia should be 6.4% higher, with a prospect of 3.61 million bags of 60 kilos of processed coffee. In Rondônia, where conilon is also predominant, the volume is estimated at 3.19 million bags, an increase of 5.1% compared to the previous harvest.
ℹ️ Content published by Myllena Seifarth under the supervision of the editor-in-chief Thiago Pereira
Want to stay on top of Brazilian agribusiness and receive the main news from the sector in first hand? To do this, just join our WhatsApp group (click here) or Telegram (click here). You can also subscribe to our feed via Google News
Full copying of the above content is not permitted. Partial reproduction is authorized only in the form of a citation and with a link to the full content. Plagiarism is a crime according to Law 9610/98.
Follow Compre Rural on Google News and follow our highlights.