February is the last month of the so-called meteorological summer (quarter from December to February), although the astronomical summer only comes to an end on March 20, at 0:04. As a summer month, it is obviously hot and usually records days of very high temperatures with rain mainly of a convective nature, that is, associated with hot and humid air.
In the south of Brazil, historically, the month does not tend to be very rainy in most areas. The exception is for the East of Santa Catarina, Paraná and sometimes the extreme Northeast of Rio Grande do Sul due to the action of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, a moisture channel that originates in the Amazon, passes through the Center-West and reaches the Southeast. .
February, as the peak summer month, has the common irregularity of rainfall with significant variability in rainfall totals from one area to another. In one month, one point in a municipality may have a lot of rain and other low volumes of precipitation. The volumes are determined too much by blows that are isolated.
This February 2024, the month begins with very little rain in the south of Brazil. A large number of cities in the South region are not even expected to have rain in the first week of the month, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul.
February, in general, will have irregular rain in southern Brazil. There will be areas within the same state with precipitation below and above average, but, in general, most points should have rain close to or below average.
With greater irregularity in rainfall, areas that have below-average rainfall may experience water scarcity in the field, with stress on crops, as is the case with soybeans, which at this time of year have their period of greatest water demand. This was a risk that we anticipated in the summer forecast.
With the heat, vegetative stress increases, and it is only made worse by the voluminous rain in recent months, which guarantees much higher soil moisture levels than in recent summers.