February should have above average rainfall in much of Bahia


The month of February begins with firm weather in most of Bahia, with areas of instability still persisting in some regions, however, with no imminent chances of new storms and prolonged rains.

As occurred in January 2016, a year that also had a strong influence from El Niño, with drought and heat in the spring, it rained quite significant volumes in practically the entire state, reaching up to 600 millimeters (mm) in locations along the border with Minas Gerais and the Far West.

For this reason, 19 municipalities were in a state of emergency, with around 5,500 people displaced and almost 1,500 homeless. The storms also left at least five people dead and 13 injured.

Positive anomaly

For next month, meteorology institutes and mathematical meteorology models are indicating a positive anomaly for rainfall, with chances of precipitation with accumulated volumes more than 100% higher than the climatological average for February.

In the images below, the Global Forecast System model (Global Forecast System – GFS) indicates larger anomalies than the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. However, the two sources converge towards the trend of above-average rainfall.

The largest volumes are predicted for the Far-West of the State, with accumulations of between 200 mm and 300 mm expected in the areas closest to the borders of Goiás and Tocantins. In the Center-South, South and São-Franciscano Valley, accumulations can vary between 150 mm and 200 mm. In the rest of the state, including the capital Salvador, it may rain between 80 and 120 mm.

The first heavy rains are expected to arrive in the state in the middle of next week, starting in the west. In the following days, the humidity should spread to other regions. During the Carnival festivities, blows may occur in some cities during the Carnival festivities.

Before that, it should not rain significantly in the state, with the possibility of rapid and thundery rains only in isolation.

This Tuesday (30), the National Institute of Meteorology released its weather forecast for the month of February. In addition to above-average rain, the heat should also be slightly above the climatology across the state. Despite this, heat waves should not occur again in Bahia during this period, with temperatures much milder than those recorded last spring.

The article is in Portuguese


Tags: February average rainfall Bahia



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