Photo: Eduardo Valente / GOVSC
The arrival of autumn 2024 should also mark the end of El Niño
Santa Catarina residents can expect average rainfall and temperatures close to above average in the months of February, March and April – this is what the Climate Forecast Bulletin released by Epagri/Ciram. The forecast also indicates that the arrival of autumn 2024 should mark the end of the El Niño. The start of the season in the Southern Hemisphere occurs on March 20th at 00:06. Check out the weather forecast for Santa Catarina:
Poorly distributed rain
During the month of February, the rain must be poorly distributed in the state, associated with the convection process (characteristic of summer). The forecast for Santa Catarina indicates that intense rains may occur on the Coast and in the Itajaí Valley due to maritime circulation. “At the end of summer, still under the influence of El Niño, there remains the risk of extreme events with heavy rain and high totals in a short period of time, storms with strong electrical activity (lightning), hail and wind”, highlights Gilsânia Cruz, meteorologist from Epagri/Ciram. In March and April, volumes are close to expected.
Throughout the quarter, the temperature should be close to above the climatological average in Santa Catarina. In the months of February and March, hot air masses act frequently, with consecutive days of high temperatures, including at night. Heat waves are expected in summer, especially due to the influence of El Niño.
“Isolated episodes with lower temperatures may occur in the early hours of the morning and at dawn, with frost in the high areas of the Southern Plateau. These episodes should be more frequent throughout April, with the arrival of the first cold air masses in the state”, adds the meteorologist Marilene de Lima.
End of El Niño
In December 2023, sea surface temperature (SST) remained high throughout the Equatorial Pacific, with a positive anomaly close to and above 2°C, due to the action of a strong El Niño. In January 2024, a decrease in this warming will be observed in much of the Equatorial Pacific.
In the coming months, the phenomenon is expected to end El Niño, establishing neutrality throughout autumn. There is a possibility of La Nina following, and conditions will be monitored throughout the year.
Follow the Epagri/Ciram and always stay up to date with the forecast for Santa Catarina.