ANA launches study on the impacts of climate change on water resources in different regions of Brazil

ANA launches study on the impacts of climate change on water resources in different regions of Brazil
ANA launches study on the impacts of climate change on water resources in different regions of Brazil

How does climate change impact the waters of different regions of Brazil? To answer this and other questions, the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) launched the first edition of the study Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Brazil this Wednesday, January 31st. The launch took place during live from ANA that kicked off the 2024 Water Journey and revealed the theme for World Water Day (March 22) in Brazil this year: Water Unites Us, Climate Moves Us.

The new ANA survey presents, in an unprecedented way, considering the sub-basin scale, the effects of climate change on water availability in Brazil and can be used as a reference for planning and management of the water resources and basic sanitation sectors by basin committees, public bodies that deal with this issue, researchers and water users. This study indicates a scenario with a tendency to reduce water availability for almost the entire country, including large urban centers and important regions for agricultural production, such as the São Francisco river basin, considering short, medium and long-term scenarios – respectively the periods from 2015 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070 and from 2071 to 2100.

According to the publication, water availability could fall by up to 40% in hydrographic regions of the North, Northeast, Central-West and part of the Southeast by 2040. With this reduction, there is a tendency to increase the number of stretches of intermittent rivers (which dry up temporarily ) especially in the Northeast region. These situations require preparation and can affect hydroelectric generation, agriculture and water supply in cities in these regions. On the other hand, the South has a tendency to increase water availability by up to 5% by 2040, but with greater unpredictability and an increase in the frequency of floods, as has been occurring in the region in recent years.

Map on the scenario of reduction in water availability by 2040

The trends in the impacts of climate change by river basin, indicated in the study, are presented at the appropriate scale for decision-making by authorities and users and can be used to improve adaptation measures to this scenario by improving water resources management, the search for alternative sources of water, the more rational use of this resource and infrastructure in the face of possible climate change scenarios, making populations more resilient to this situation. Find out more about the regional highlights of this ANA study.

Regional highlights


Among the five regions, the Central-West has a greater divergence between the projection trends of the different climate models, which brings uncertainty in the region’s future climate conditions. Still, it is necessary to evaluate whether or not to adopt measures that consider possible scenarios of water scarcity in the region. With the need to improve decision-making instruments even under uncertainty, the Center-West is a strategic region for having the sources of important rivers – such as the Tocantins, the Araguaia, the Paraguay and tributaries forming the Paraná River – and for concentrating large agricultural production areas.

North East

In the Northeast, there is a tendency towards a reduction in river flows and average rainfall volumes, bringing with it the prospect of a decrease in water availability in the region and an intensification of drought both in the semi-arid region and on the coastal strip. Therefore, the study indicates the need for measures to cope with more severe and prolonged periods of drought, which lead to an increase in water supply and the rationalization of uses in the semi-arid region and on the northeastern coast.


According to the ANA study, the North has a tendency to reduce flows and average volumes of rainfall and the prospect of more frequent and intense droughts in this region, which is home to a large part of the Amazon. This framework requires measures to manage water demand in the North, including improving the region’s infrastructure to enable mobility for more isolated communities that depend on river navigation to move around and be supplied, in addition to preparing for the protection of ecosystems in a scenario of greater water scarcity.


The Southeast still presents a certain divergence between the results of the models, but, especially in the coastal strip, the trend towards a reduction in flows due to climate change predominates, causing a decrease in water availability in the river basins of the Southeast. As the region has the largest regional population and large urban centers – such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte – it is necessary to invest in strategies to adapt to climate change, greater efficiency in the use and management of water resources and expansion of infrastructure water supply for the most vulnerable populations.


Unlike the rest of Brazil, the South has a tendency to increase water availability. However, there is a tendency for climate unpredictability to increase in the region, with concentrated events of floods and droughts, and, therefore, it will be necessary to adopt measures to prepare for fluctuations from excess water to scarcity of the resource. It will also be necessary to adopt water demand management measures and consider the issue of flood protection infrastructure.

Water Journey 2024

The Water Journey 2024 foresees a series of activities, campaigns and events throughout the year. The theme of World Water Day that will be presented at live will be a reference for the actions of the Journey, which was designed to raise awareness among society, members of the Public Administration, actors in the water resources and basic sanitation sectors, among other strategic entities for the care of Brazil’s waters.

Participated in the live launching the Journey to the Agency’s interim CEO, Ana Carolina Argolo; interim directors Nazareno Araújo and Marcelo Medeiros; the Minister of Integration and Regional Development, Waldez Góes; the Minister of Cities, Jader Filho; and the executive secretary of the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, João Paulo Capobianco.

World Water Day

On March 22, 1992, the United Nations (UN) created World Water Day on Brazilian soil. The date was launched during the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, also known as Eco-92, in Rio de Janeiro, as an effort by the international community to put on the agenda the essential issues involving water resources on the planet. . In 2024, the theme defined for World Water Day by the UN is Water for Peace.

Special Social Communication Advisory (ASCOM)
National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA)
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The article is in Portuguese

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