The Imprensa 24h team had exclusive access to the results of an electoral survey carried out in the municipality of Porto da Folha, between the 3rd and 5th of November, by the IPESE Institute. With 423 interviewees, the research addressed different scenarios, one spontaneous and three stimulated, seeking to anticipate possible developments for the 2024 municipal elections.
Scenario 1: Spontaneous In the first scenario, in which respondents responded spontaneously, voting intentions were distributed as follows:
| Candidate | Voting Intention Percentage |
|---|---|
| Tiago | 18.9% |
| Everton da Saúde | 13.9% |
| Saininho | 6.4% |
| Miguel | 4.7% |
| Junior | 2.4% |
| Miguel’s candidate | 0.9% |
| Marlene | 0.7% |
| Vote for PT | 0.2% |
| Elder | 0.2% |
| Gil Autoparts | 0.5% |
| Prof. David of Doge | 0.2% |
| Airton | 0.7% |
| Did not answer | 2.4% |
| No one / doesn’t have | 11.1% |
| Do not know | 36.8% |
Scenario 2: Stimulated with Everton da Saúde, Saininho, Tiago, Júnior, and Não Sabe
| Candidate | Voting Intention Percentage |
|---|---|
| Tiago | 24.3% |
| Everton da Saúde | 20.3% |
| Saininho | 15.1% |
| Junior | 4.5% |
| Do not know | 35.8% |
Scenario 3: Stimulated with Tiago, Everton da Saúde, Saininho, and Não Sabe
| Candidate | Voting Intention Percentage |
|---|---|
| Tiago | 24.9% |
| Everton da Saúde | 21.1% |
| Saininho | 15.6% |
| Do not know | 38.4% |
Scenario 4: Stimulated by Tiago, Everton da Saúde, and Don’t Know
| Candidate | Voting Intention Percentage |
|---|---|
| Tiago | 32.4% |
| Everton da Saúde | 25.5% |
| Do not know | 42.1% |
Scenario Analysis The analysis of the scenarios suggests a fierce competition between the candidates Tiago and Everton da Saúde. In the spontaneous scenario, Tiago leads, but the presence of “Não Sabe” with 36.8% indicates a significant portion of undecided voters. As the research advances to stimulated scenarios, the dispute intensifies between Tiago and Everton da Saúde, with variations in percentages, but maintaining polarization. The significant presence of voters who have not yet decided their vote is a constant, especially in scenarios 3 and 4, where “Don’t Know” reaches the highest percentages. Based on the results, candidates and their teams will have the challenge of winning over undecided voters and consolidating support to strengthen their positions in future electoral scenarios. The Porto da Folha electorate presents itself as an open field for campaign strategies that seek to dialogue with the demands and expectations of the population.
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